Maya Sandu re-elected for a second term: how it will affect Ukraine and the region – commentary by Volodymyr Tsybulko
4 November 12:15
EXCLUSIVE
The incumbent President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who defends her country’s pro-Western course, won a landslide victory in the elections, beating her opponent from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, Alexandru Stoianoglo, by 10%. With 99.55% of the vote counted, Sandu was supported by 55.26% of voters, or 924,351 votes, while Stoianoglo received 44.74% (748,263 votes). This provided Sandu with a confident advantage of more than 176 thousand votes.
In an exclusive commentary for Komersant ukrainskyi
, political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko explained the significance of this result for Moldova, Ukraine, and the entire region.
Sandu’s handicap and voter mobilization
Tsybulko notes that Maia Sandu has had a significant advantage since the first round of elections, when the gap between the candidates was 16%. According to him, political practice shows that it is possible to overcome the 5% gap in the second round.
“First of all, Maia Sandu had a good handicap in the first round – 16%. It is very difficult to overcome such a handicap. The difference in the second round of 10% shows that, according to long-term observations, it is possible to cover 5%,”
– the expert says.
Another important aspect of this result was the mobilization of Sandu’s electorate, the political scientist says. Thanks to this, the flow of votes to Stoianogolo’s side was not very noticeable.
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Ukraine Moldova EU-Russia
After the European Union announced Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia as candidates for accession, it turned out that, like it or not, Ukraine has to look back at these countries as it moves toward Europe. Georgia has so far “fallen away,” but the role of Moldova and the events taking place there has only increased in this context. From all possible angles, it appears that Ukraine is simply obliged to work effectively with Moldova and help it in its European integration aspirations. According to Tsybulko, Ukraine has one rather powerful and reliable partner in this mission.
“Moldova is sandwiched between two countries – Ukraine and Romania. And Romania, as we have seen, is a very consistent and honest partner of Ukraine. Therefore, there is one very important factor: the synchronization of actions between Ukraine and Romania,”
– says Tsybulko.
The stakes in this game are quite high, because another stakeholder in the region, Russia, is not sitting idly by. And the difficulties Moldova faced in the referendum and elections are a clear confirmation of this.
“Many Moldovans live in Russia because they settled there after the 90s. Since Moscow created a large number of high-paying jobs, Moldovans looked for work in Europe less than in Russia,”
– the political scientist recalls and adds that the situation has changed recently. after the signing of the association agreement and the establishment of a visa-free regime with the EU, Moldovans went to Europe en masse. Moreover, they are more qualified specialists than those who settled in Russia. And these people became almost the core of Sandu’s electorate.
“The problem for Sandu was to mobilize this electorate. As we can see, when the results of foreign polling stations began to come in, the situation immediately turned in favor of Maia Sandu,”
– says Tsybulko.
Cooperation between intelligence services is the key to a (bright) European future
After Maia Sandu won the first presidential election, her first foreign visit was to Kyiv, which, according to Cibulco, symbolizes her desire for rapprochement with Ukraine and the European Union. He emphasizes:
“Kyiv’s consistency in such a synchronized rapprochement with the EU is a confirmation of, one might say, predictable behavior.”
In this process, we should be as active as possible and not forget that a pro-European Moldova is in Ukraine’s national interests. And Ukraine, surprisingly, is quite successful in this regard.
“It was Ukraine that helped to defeat Maia Sandu in a certain way, because we remember that a citizen of Ukraine from Luhansk region, a traitor to Ukraine who collaborated with the occupation regime and built a network against Sandu in Moldova within the CIS institution, was deported from Moldova,”
– volodymyr Tsybulko reminds. According to the political scientist, this joint work of the Moldovan prosecutor’s office and the Ukrainian special services demonstrated Ukraine’s deep desire to support Moldova on its path to European integration.
Thus, the victory of Maia Sandu for a second term not only demonstrates support for Moldova’s pro-Western course, but also opens up new opportunities for strengthening cooperation with Ukraine and the EU. And synchronized actions by Ukraine and Romania can, if not ensure, at least contribute to stability in the region and limit Russia’s influence on Moldova. This is one of the key factors in strengthening Moldova’s pro-European vector, and thus Ukraine’s European integration policy.
