Starting from 1 September 2024, the Chinese government is introducing a new wave of restrictions on the export of goods related to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These sanctions affect a number of components important for the production of drones, which could significantly complicate their supply to Ukraine. The commander of an aerial reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, codenamed “Magyar,” said in a post on social media that the situation with UAVs at the front would now be as difficult as possible for Ukrainian defenders, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
“Everyone involved in the use of drones should prepare for a new test. And it will be disproportionate to the temporary shortage of ammunition. At least from time to time, our partners supply them (ammunition, not drones). This will not be the case with drones. They will be expensive and scarce. And there will be a couple of dozen new millionaires. Of different “suits”,”
– the military wrote.
He recalled that a month ago, the Chinese government announced restrictions on the export of a number of UAV-related goods from the country from 1 September, but this information was not particularly taken into account in Ukraine.
“…yesterday and today, all those involved received the following announcements for the largest carriers: “Dear customers ….. ….. We would like to draw your attention to important changes in the list of goods that are prohibited for transportation under 30 kg,”
– said Magyar.
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Thus, starting from 1 September, exports from China will be subject to even stricter inspections. The goods subject to the ban will not be available for air and sea delivery.
According to the official, the goods that fall under the ban on exports from China include:
- Carbon frame for a quadcopter.
- Carbon beam for a quadcopter.
- A quadcopter.
- Motor for a quadcopter.
- A set of components for a quadcopter.
- A set of frames for quadcopters.
- Navigation camera for a quadcopter.
- Flight controller for a quadcopter.
- Landing gear for a quadcopter.
- Propeller for a quadcopter.
- Frame for a quadcopter.
- Signal amplifier for the remote control of a quadcopter.
- Digital data transmission system for a quadcopter.
- Digital radio communication detector.
- Radio system.
- A radio station.
- A portable radio.
- A system for transmitting a video signal over a radio channel.
- Electronic warfare system.
According to Magyar, these restrictions may become one of the reasons that will force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, and not on parity.
“I think that… the described restriction will be one of the components of “shrinking” us to the negotiating table. And not on parity terms at all,”
– Magyar summed up, noting that the Ukrainian military will continue to fight to the last, despite all the difficulties.
One million drones and army modernisation
The decision to maximise state support for drone production was made in March 2023, when the government approved a resolution. Since then, the Ministry of Digital Transformation has been actively working to expand production, provide maximum support to drone manufacturers, and remove bureaucratic obstacles to the creation of UAVs. Minister Fedorov launched the People’s Drone initiative, under which every citizen can assemble a drone at home at their own expense.
In late 2023, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that Ukraine would produce one million drones for the frontline by 2024, referring to FPV drones. Minister Fedorov responded with assurances that this target would even be exceeded. Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries Hanna Hvozdyar argues that Ukraine is capable of producing significantly more than one million drones a year, and current production is already ahead of schedule.
In his last article in the Western press on the eve of his dismissal as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi stressed the need for a technological breakthrough in the army, with a particular focus on unmanned technologies. The Commander-in-Chief claimed that it would take only 5 months to reorient the army to unmanned systems.After his dismissal, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the government to work on the creation of a separate type of troops in the Armed Forces – the Unmanned Systems Forces. They were formally established on 6 February 2024.
However, any drone production in Ukraine relies primarily on Chinese components.