Logical somersaults of the European Union: we give €40 billion in military aid, but write down €80 billion
5 May 10:07
A senior EU official has announced a new pledge of military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. It is that the EU will double it if Trump fails to achieve peace. EU Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius wrote about this in X, according to Komersant ukrainskyi. However, there is a caveat: the aid itself will not be doubled – the EU will only think so.
“If Trump fails to convince Putin to make peace, we can very quickly put forward more convincing arguments in favor of peace by significantly increasing our military support for Ukraine. Until now, the EU and the US have provided Ukraine with about €40 billion in military aid per year,”
– he wrote.
However, the EU, he said, could move to a much more active model that involves investing in the Ukrainian defense industry.
“But we can spend the same amount on purchasing modern weapons in Ukraine, which will cost about half as much as those produced in the EU or the US. This would effectively double the amount of weapons Ukraine receives for the same €40 billion. The real value of our support would increase to €80B,”
– the Commissioner added.
That is, it is not really about doubling the funding. The point is that the European Union will consider the number 40 to be the number 80.
And the new EU initiative SAFE will help to realize this logical leap.
“The new #SAFE loans supported by the EU provide member states with exactly this opportunity: to use the loans to increase military support for Ukraine. This is how the Peace through Strength formula can truly work in practice. #SAFE loans mean strength for Ukraine!”
– the Commissioner advertised the new EU initiative.
What is the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative?
Security Action for Europe, SAFE, is a new EU financial instrument that will provide up to €150 billion in loans to member states, backed by the EU budget. It will help member states strengthen their defense capabilities through joint procurement.
Joint procurement will ensure interoperability between member states’ armed forces and predictability for the European defense industry, reduce costs and provide the scale needed to strengthen the European defense industrial base. This is key to both the competitiveness and readiness of the European defense industry.
European Commission
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How the EU is helping Ukraine
At the Munich Security Conference, the United States made it clear to the European Union that Europe’s security is its own problem. After that, the rhetoric of European officials for several days was filled with loud statements that it was time for Europe to wake up and finally start taking care of its own security.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, European leaders were racing to generate ideas about how they would support Ukraine and how they would help it achieve a just peace. They talked about peacekeepers (who would be in the rear), about closing the skies over Ukraine with British aircraft, about Taurus missiles, and even about the fact that a significant part of the planned 800 billion-dollar EU defense package would go to Ukraine.
A common position on peacekeepers was not reached, talks about Taurus missiles stopped, and meanwhile the EU is making decisions and taking actions that can hardly be called helping Ukraine defend Europe.
Just a few days after the Munich conference, it turned out that Belgium would hand over 30 F-16s to Ukraine not by the end of 2025, as planned and promised, but by the end of 2028. The reason was announced: The United States is delaying the delivery of F-35s, which are supposed to replace the F-16s in the Belgian military fleet. 30 F-16s are a significant number, and they could significantly improve Ukraine’s position in the sky, including a very significant boost to its air defense system. Now Ukraine cannot count on these aircraft until 2028.
Later, it turned out that the approved 800 billion euro defense package for Ukraine did not include anything special. It only mentions that Ukrainian defense companies are part of the same “pool” as European ones, and therefore the purchase of weapons from them is a priority along with EU companies.
At the same time, it turned out that during the third year of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the EU spent more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial assistance to Ukraine. During this time, the EU bought 21.9 billion euros worth of Russian oil and gas. This amount is one-sixth higher than the 18.7 billion euros that the EU has allocated to Ukraine as financial aid in 2024.
