“China’s balance”: what role does Beijing play in the negotiations between the US and Russia?
21 February 17:43
on February 21, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he expressed support for the decisions made and announced after the talks between the United States and Russia on February 18 in Saudi Arabia.
The top diplomat noted that China has always advocated for an early peaceful resolution of the crisis and continues to actively promote negotiations in accordance with the principles proposed by President Xi Jinping.
Wang Yi emphasized that his country supports all efforts aimed at achieving peace, including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia, and hopes that the parties concerned can find a sustainable and long-term solution that takes into account mutual interests. And China is ready to play a constructive role in the political settlement of the “crisis” (the war in Ukraine – ed.), given the concerns of the international community, especially the countries of the Global South (a notional sector in the UN that includes Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean – ed.)
Wang Yi also met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 summit. He noted that relations between China and Russia continue to develop at the highest level and in broader areas. The two ministers discussed the current situation in Ukraine and emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and negotiations.
In his speech at the G20, Wang Yi emphasized that countries should respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as each country’s chosen development path and social system. He noted that, despite the differences in the parties’ positions and the complexity of the problem, dialogue is better than confrontation, and negotiations are better than war. China continues to call for peaceful negotiations and is ready to cooperate with the international community to achieve sustainable peace in the region.
China’s support for the recent consensus between the US and Russia reflects Beijing’s desire to play an active role in international efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Analysts note that China is interested in preventing negative consequences of the conflict for its interests and may be seeking to participate in the future reconstruction of Ukraine. Critics, however, point out that China’s involvement is cautious and largely rhetorical, given the uncertainty surrounding the US-Russia talks and their impact on geopolitical reality.
The expert noted that China is currently playing a specific game. Official Beijing is doing everything possible to ensure that the events that have taken place play to the maximum benefit of its economic, financial and geopolitical interests.
“And, obviously, there are a lot of discussions now about whether we can see any peaceful settlement in the near future. But in any case, China is waiting and it is now trying to build a strategy that could be the most effective of both scenarios,” Zhelikhovsky said.
The political scientist explained that China’s strategic plans are as follows:
Maintaining the military status quo. If the situation does not change, Beijing will continue to actively build its position on the tensions in Eastern Europe. After all, it was China that repeatedly called for a ceasefire during the Great War and proposed its own peace plan. Accordingly, China now needs to decide whether it will need to make such a proposal in the future if peace is not achieved.
Settlement of relations with the United States. After all, if the cessation of active hostilities in Ukraine is achieved, the administration of US President Donald Trump may turn its attention to China.
“It is important to understand the fact that both Donald Trump and some members of his team are against China, that is, they have anti-Chinese views in US foreign policy. And they definitely oppose his economic ambitions. We saw this in the case of Panama, where the United States was able to push China out,” explains Zhelikhovsky.
Promoting its interests in Greenland. After all, Donald Trump has also repeatedly expressed his interest in resources in this region. Therefore, the US president will soon decide whether to build any relations with official Beijing in this area.
“But we can see that there are now encouraging signals that there will be no confrontation, encouraging for Beijing, that there will be no confrontation between the United States and China. Donald Trump has already announced the possibility of concluding a trade agreement with China, as well as a possible visit to the United States by the Chinese leader. But I think that he is using this to be able to influence China’s actions, in particular, to stop it from supporting Russia to the extent that it does. That is, he would still like to break this alliance,” the expert explained.
Zhelikhovsky added that so far China has not shown its desire to dissociate itself from the Russian Federation or somehow influence Vladimir Putin’s position on a peaceful settlement.
“I assume, of course, that China is making efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement, to influence Moscow and not to support Russia in this war. And, obviously, the Kremlin realizes its weakness, that it will not be able to continue to act in the international arena, and in the context of aggressive actions. So, of course, Putin will be more accommodating. And if China actually plays such a role, then I think we can’t predict such a big confrontation,” he said.
The political scientist summarized that, in principle, it would be beneficial for China to stop hostilities for the sake of harmonious relations with the European Union and the United States. After all, such stability is an opportunity to implement its political projects.
In turn, political scientist Ruslan Bortnik, who
“Everyone is well aware that the impact of the end or continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war on international relations, on competition between the US and China, on cooperation between China and Russia, on China’s position in Europe and on American markets may be decisive,” Bortnik explained.
According to him, China, on the one hand, seeks a compromise end to the war without a sharp strengthening of one of the parties, because the continuation of the war threatens international trade. On the other hand, Beijing is trying to avoid strengthening either the West or Russia. In addition, it would be a negative scenario for China to create a political alliance between the United States and Russia, so it is trying to avoid these options.
Ruslan Bortnik also emphasized that China has significant economic resources that allow it to actively participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine and compensation for military losses. That is why China has a significant influence on Russia and can be a factor that will push the Kremlin to adopt a particular scenario.
“Therefore, China remains a ‘director behind the scenes’. And although it does not directly direct the current play, it largely manages the backstage of this theater, is responsible for its condition and is interested in ensuring that the play continues without a catastrophe,” the expert explained.
Therefore, China is currently in a dual position, although it is not impossible to exclude a situation in which an agreement between the United States, Russia and China can be found simultaneously. Then the main prize of this war will be not only Ukraine, but all European countries in general, economic, technological and investment opportunities that can be divided between the new global powers.
