Crimea as a trap: the occupiers tremble, and the world discusses the “plum” that could change everything
22 April 18:14
ANALYSIS FROM 
Crimea as a bargaining chip? Recent statements by the American media have stunned the Ukrainian information space. Is annexation as part of a possible peace deal with the aggressor? While the Ukrainian authorities deny any hint of border revision, in American circles they are allegedly considering scenarios that seemed taboo just yesterday. What really lies behind these information throws. Why is the topic of “legitimizing” the occupation being raised now? And how fear on the peninsula turns into panic – about all this in the material
In recent weeks, the information field has been flooded with contradictory signals about the future of Crimea. The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine has received a number of unofficial proposals from the United States regarding the possible end of the war, among which is the assumption of recognition of the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Bloomberg also writes about Washington’s willingness to “consolidate” Russia’s control over the peninsula as part of a broader peace agreement with Moscow.
However, the Ukrainian authorities are standing firm on their own. The adviser to the head of the Presidential Office , Serhiy Leshchenko, noted: the issue of territorial integrity is not raised at the talks. Neither at the meetings in Saudi Arabia nor in France did either side raise the topic of revising Ukraine’s borders. Leshchenko recalled that similar “trial balloons” were launched even before the presidency of Donald Trump, who also hinted that Crimea allegedly “wants to be with Russia.” But it had no consequences then – and won’t have any now.
Political decision or information “leak”
We are dealing not with a political decision, but with a deliberate information drain. This opinion in an exclusive commentary
“This is a throw-in, clearly, a drain, we can say, because this is such a genre, which traditionally, it is not yet a genre, but a way. Information leakage is a long-standing tool in politics, which is used for different purposes,” Fesenko said.
In his opinion, there are several reasons why this topic has now appeared.
Probing public opinion
According to the political scientist, it could be an attempt to test how society and political elites react to such an idea.
“It is necessary to conduct a probe of information, how it will be perceived …. This could be such an indirect, indirect legitimization of this topic, so that they get used to it – first informationally, and then politically,” says Vladimir Fesenko.
An attempt to disrupt the promotion of the idea of surrendering Crimea
Another version is that the information leak was initiated by the very forces in the US that are against including the recognition of Crimea in possible peace agreements.
“People who understand this in the US Administration are giving the leak. So that this idea would cause a critical reaction, so that it could be removed from the discussion, so that it would not spoil the whole negotiation process,” Fesenko explains.
Negotiating maneuver
It could also be a typical diplomatic trick aimed at diverting attention from the real subjects of negotiations.
“The military has such a concept – a false target. So that all attention would be focused on some other subject, and real concessions would be demanded on other topics,” emphasizes Vladimir Fesenko.
The political scientist also notes: even China, Iran and Belarus have not legally recognized the annexation of Crimea, so the very idea that the United States can do this is absurd and humiliating.
“It would be a disgrace for the United States. Especially since under the first Trump presidency, the US State Department adopted the Crimean Declaration, which recognizes Crimea as an integral part of Ukraine. And here is the exact opposite position. This is a disgrace,” – summarized Fesenko.
Are they preparing for strikes in Crimea?
Meanwhile, on the peninsula itself, events are taking place that are hard to explain other than fear and panic. The Russians have banned civilians from using the Crimean bridge until May 10, officially – because of the “threat of provocations.” Unofficially – out of fear that the object will again become a target for Ukrainian strikes. Because no matter how much the Kremlin calls this bridge “sacred,” it remains illegally built and is an absolutely legitimate military target.
Added to this is the chaotic movement of Russian equipment across the peninsula. This is reported by the guerrilla movement ATESH, citing its sources in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces.
There is no systemic nature, no logic. There is only an urgent need to create a semblance of control, which looks more and more like barely concealed panic. A similar situation has already been observed during the active strikes of the AFU in 2023-2024.
Behind all this, the question arises: what is Crimea preparing for? The occupation authorities – to flee? The Kremlin – to negotiations? Or maybe the Ukrainian army – for liberation?
One thing is clear: the scenario of “surrendering” Crimea does not suit neither Ukrainian society, nor the army, nor even many international partners, who remember well that any indulgence of the aggressor is an invitation to a new war. Crimea is Ukraine. And as long as the enemy tricolor flies over it, the struggle continues. On the front, on the home front, in the information space, and in the hearts of millions of Ukrainians.
