Climate, war and water: what threatens the Ukrainian harvest
17 April 13:30
OPINION
Ukraine’s agricultural sector is entering 2025 with a number of serious challenges, both climatic and structural. In the coming months, yields could decline significantly and food prices could rise. The reasons are different, but they all have a common denominator: instability caused by war, climate anomalies, and critically low investment in irrigation.
Leading experts Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, and economist Oleg Pendzin, interviewed by "Komersant Ukrainian", talk about this.
“The key is water”: an agricultural perspective
According to Leonid Kozachenko, the main task for the coming years is to develop irrigation systems that could compensate for losses from climate change and high temperatures.
“We need to focus on increasing the area that can be cultivated under the new climate conditions. First of all, it is irrigation. We have a very small number of irrigation systems, and we need to increase them now,” the expert notes.
According to him, the most painful thing is that the largest irrigation before the full-scale war was in the region of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, which is now destroyed. About 400 thousand hectares of irrigated land have been lost.
“Even if the climate became even worse, we would not have had such losses as we have now, when the water supply infrastructure is completely destroyed. This is a base that does not work, and we are losing not only land, but also crops, investments, and stability,” explains Kozachenko.
Fertilizers without water are money down the drain
Farmers are also sounding the alarm: the lack of moisture makes the use of fertilizers economically unprofitable. They simply do not work.
“Fertilizers without moisture are wasted money. As well as plant protection products, fuel, and logistics. And all of this without a guarantee of a harvest. So, maybe we shouldn’t apply anything at all? But then there will be nothing to repay the loans to the banks with,” Kozachenko conveys the mood of the farmers.
This puts farmers before a choice: either invest in risk or be left with meager harvests and financial debts. For many, it is no longer about profit, but about survival.
The domestic market will hold out. But what about exports?
Despite the difficult circumstances, experts are confident that domestic demand for food will be covered. The problems will begin with exports, which generate foreign exchange earnings for the budget and ensure the financial viability of the agricultural sector.
“For exports, in order to be wealthy and financially powerful, our losses can be very serious. But within the country, it will be enough,” Kozachenko says.
He also emphasizes that as soon as the war is over, Ukraine will need to return to strategic planning in the agricultural sector – at least 50 years ahead.
“We have great prospects. But only if we build irrigation systems. Otherwise, we will simply remain in a field of ruins,” the expert says.
Weather, prices and inflation: an economic perspective
Economist Oleh Pendzin emphasizes that the threat of crop failure is not only an agricultural problem, but also an economic one. If the heat wave in the summer of 2025 is repeated, we will face a new round of inflation.
“The International Food Organization is already predicting that in 2025 we will harvest even less grain than in 2024. If the heat really happens, we will get a new blow to prices. The food basket will become more expensive again,” Pendzin said.
Last year, Ukraine harvested 10 million tons less grain than in the previous year.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that social standards have been frozen, and most of the population already does not have enough money for normal consumption. The rise in food prices may cause social tension, especially among vulnerable groups.
“We are an agrarian country. And whether we like it or not, we depend on the climate. This is our risk, this is our reality,” the economist said.
Agricultural year 2025 promises to be extremely challenging. Although the main hope – the end of the war – remains in the future, global challenges are here and now: drought, lack of irrigation systems, high prices for agricultural inputs, risks to exports and rising inflation.
Experts agree on one thing: strategic investments in infrastructure, political will, and most importantly, the realization that food security can no longer be considered a second-order issue. In the context of global instability, it is becoming the basis for national survival.
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