According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in July 2024, consumer inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 5.4% year-on-year compared to 4.8% in June. This was reported by the National Bank of Ukraine in its commentary on the inflation rate, reports Komersant ukrainskyi
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Core inflation rose to 5.7% due to higher prices for processed foods
Core inflation rose to 5.7% in July from 5.0% in June, exceeding the NBU’s forecasts. This was primarily due to a faster rise in the price of processed foods, driven by higher energy, storage, and labour costs. The weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate also contributed to price pressure.
Raw food prices slowed to 4.8% yoy
The decline in raw food prices slowed to 4.8% yoy. Sugar and cereals fell at a slower pace due to the depletion of stocks from previous high harvests. Tomato prices also slowed their decline, while cucumber prices rose significantly due to a smaller supply of quality products and more difficult weather conditions.
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Administratively regulated prices increased by 13.4% year-on-year
The growth of administratively regulated prices slightly accelerated to 13.4% yoy. Prices for alcoholic beverages declined more slowly, while growth in prices for pharmaceuticals and medical products accelerated. At the same time, inflation was restrained by the moratorium on raising tariffs for certain housing and utility services for households.
Fuel price growth slowed to 17.6% yoy
The growth in fuel prices decelerated to 17.6% yoy. This reflected the effects of the comparison base due to the return of fuel taxation to pre-war levels in July 2023, as well as ample stocks and lower demand from the agricultural sector.
NBU expects inflation to accelerate further in the coming months
The NBU expects inflation to accelerate further in the coming months. This is due to higher business costs for labour and electricity, higher excise taxes, and the effects of the hryvnia devaluation carried over from previous months. However, the NBU assures that inflation will remain moderate in 2024 due to measures to protect hryvnia incomes and household savings and to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market.