India and Pakistan flaunt their muscles, but no one makes the first move
6 May 09:35
Pakistan on Monday conducted its second missile test in three days amid rising tensions with India over a deadly attack in Kashmir. At the same time, India has ordered several states to conduct civilian security exercises, indicating an escalation of the confrontation between the nuclear powers. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Reuters.
The Pakistani military tested a Fatah missile with a range of 120 km, two days after the launch of an Abdali ballistic missile with a range of 450 km. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that these successful tests confirm the strength of Pakistan’s defense.
The Indian Ministry of Home Affairs has ordered security drills to be held on May 7, including air raids, evacuations and preparation of the population for possible emergencies. The decision was made in the absence of direct communication channels between the two countries.
Moody’s warned that the escalation could seriously harm Pakistan’s economy, which is only beginning to recover after receiving a $7 billion IMF rescue loan last year. Prolonged tensions could undermine fiscal consolidation, limit access to external finance, and put pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
The economic consequences for India are expected to be less significant due to minimal economic ties between the countries. However, a potential increase in defense spending could negatively affect New Delhi’s fiscal strength.
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International reaction
Recently, it has been reported that India has asked the IMF to reconsider its loans to Pakistan. This confirms New Delhi’s attempts to put pressure on Islamabad through economic leverage as well.
The international community is trying to intervene to de-escalate the situation: Iran’s foreign minister visited Pakistan on Monday and plans to visit India on Thursday.
Russia has clearly sided with India in this conflict. In a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Putin “strongly condemned” the attack in Kashmir and expressed full support for India in its “fight against terrorism.” It is known that India is the second largest buyer of Russian oil, while Pakistan is not among Russia’s major customers.
Pakistan has declared its intention to officially inform the UN Security Council about the situation and call on it to fulfill its primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security by taking appropriate measures. Prospects for a diplomatic solution to the conflict remain uncertain.
Escalation
The Himalayan region of Kashmir remains the epicenter of a long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan. Both countries claim the entire territory but control only parts of it. India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting the separatists, while Islamabad claims to provide only diplomatic support.
The current crisis was triggered by an attack on April 22, during which militants killed 26 Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir. This is the largest terrorist attack against civilians in India in almost 20 years. New Delhi blamed it on Pakistan, which categorically denies any involvement.
Bilateral relations have been deteriorating rapidly, with the two countries closing their land borders, suspending trade, and banning air travel. Small arms exchanges are already taking place on the border in Kashmir, which is causing concern among the international community.
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