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India and Pakistan: 77 Years of Hate, War and Nuclear Balancing Act

For more than seven decades, the two nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan, have been living in the shadow of a protracted conflict that has erupted in wars, terrorist attacks, and political ultimatums. The roots of this enmity are much deeper than modern geopolitical intrigues – they go back to the era of the colonial partition of British India. Today, the two countries are once again on the brink of war, so "Komersant Ukrainian" looked back in history to trace the roots of the current aggression.

A divorce that turned into a tragedy

In 1947, the British crown, exhausted by war and pressure for decolonization, agreed to let India go. But instead of a peaceful transition to independence, the South Asian subcontinent experienced the bloodiest divorce in history. Under the leadership of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Muslims achieved the creation of a separate state, Pakistan. India, in turn, became a secular republic with a predominantly Hindu population.

More than 10 million people were forced to leave their homes in massive migrations-Muslims fled to Pakistan, Hindus to India. Historians have not yet agreed on the exact number of deaths, but estimates range from 200,000 to 2 million. Thus was born a conflict that became not only political but also deeply emotional.

Kashmir is a bone of contention

At the time of partition, the issue of Kashmir remained open. This predominantly Muslim territory had a Hindu maharajah, Hari Singh, who was hesitant about which country to join. In October 1947, after being attacked by Pakistani tribes, the Maharajah turned to India for help and agreed to integrate. This was the beginning of the First Indo-Pakistani War.

After a year-long standoff, the UN intervened and imposed a ceasefire, dividing Kashmir along the Line of Control. But the conflict was never resolved. India considers Kashmir its integral part, while Pakistan considers it an occupied territory. Since then, it has become the main front line between the two countries.

The second war: Pakistan’s revenge

In 1965, Pakistan decided to take revenge. Operation Gibraltar involved the infiltration of militants into Indian Kashmir to incite an uprising.

But the plan failed. India launched a counterattack that resulted in a full-scale war. Fighting took place in both Kashmir and Punjab. After several weeks of fighting, the parties again agreed to a truce under pressure from the USSR and the United States. In 1966, the Tashkent Agreement was signed, but neither side changed its position on Kashmir.

1971: the war that changed the map of South Asia

The Third Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was the largest war of all. But its cause was not Kashmir, but an internal conflict in East Pakistan (modern Bangladesh), where Bengali nationalists fought for independence.

India supported refugees and rebels who fled to its territory after brutal repression by West Pakistan. In December 1971, India intervened militarily. Two weeks later, the Pakistani army surrendered, and a new country, Bangladesh, appeared on the world map. It was a humiliating defeat for Islamabad and a defining moment in the regional balance of power.

The nuclear race

The 1971 defeat was the trigger for Pakistan to start a nuclear program. In 1974, India conducted its first “peaceful nuclear test,” and in 1998, it officially became a nuclear power. Pakistan responded with its own test the same year. Since then, the two states have been in a state of “mutually assured destruction”-the conflict could erupt, but both sides know that nuclear war is suicide.

Kargil: a war under cover

In 1999, a year after the nuclear tests, Pakistani plainclothes troops (mostly military commandos) seized positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control in the Kargil area. India responded with a large-scale military operation. Despite initial success, Pakistan was defeated, and international pressure forced it to withdraw.

Kargil was a unique war: it was fought between two nuclear powers, and the world watched in horror to see if it would escalate into something bigger.

Terrorism as an instrument of war

In the 2000s, the conflict took on a new form: terrorist attacks. Pakistan was repeatedly accused of supporting Islamist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which were acting against India.

The most high-profile attack was in Mumbai in November 2008: ten militants attacked hotels, train stations, and a Jewish center, killing 166 people. India directly accused Pakistan, but there was no direct military response – the international community again intervened to contain the conflict.

2019: a new escalation

In February 2019, a suicide bomber attacked an Indian army convoy in Kashmir, killing 40 soldiers. India launched an air strike on the Pakistani town of Balakot, claiming to have destroyed a militant training camp. In response, Pakistan shot down an Indian plane and captured the pilot, who was later returned as a “goodwill gesture.”

It was the first air clash between India and Pakistan in more than 40 years, and it reminded the world once again how fragile stability in the region is.

Modi and the revision of Kashmir

In August 2019, Narendra Modi’s government repealed Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which guaranteed Jammu and Kashmir autonomy. This meant the full integration of Kashmir into the Indian legal system. For Pakistan, this was an “annexation”, for India, it was a “correction of a historical mistake”.

Protests erupted in Islamabad, diplomatic relations were reduced to a minimum, but there were no direct hostilities. The UN called for restraint but did not take any serious steps to mediate.

2020-2024: the calm before the storm

Despite its explosive history, the conflict has been frozen in recent years. The Line of Control in Kashmir was relatively calm. However, in the case of India and Pakistan, every new incident – from a terrorist attack to a border incident – can lead to escalation. And that is what has happened now.

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Escalation 2025

In April 2025, South Asia came close to the abyss again – the fragile balance between India and Pakistan was shaken after the mass shooting of civilian tourists in Indian Kashmir.

on April 22, unidentified gunmen opened fire on a group of tourists at the popular Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, armed with assault rifles and acting with what witnesses said was military precision. The attack lasted only a few minutes, but its consequences were catastrophic: 26 people were killed, most of them Indian citizens, and more than two dozen others were injured. An amateur video filmed by one of the tourists seconds before the attack quickly spread on social media and became a symbol of the brutality of this act.

The attack was the bloodiest in Kashmir in more than a decade. According to some reports, the shooters targeted victims on the basis of their religion, giving the tragedy a sectarian feel. They are said to have demanded that the men show their genitals and shot them if they were uncircumcised.

The group The Resistance Front, a paramilitary organization that has long been linked by Indian security services to the Pakistani network Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility for the attack. However, the statement was withdrawn the very next day. Instead of a confession, there was silence, and, as has often happened in the history of this conflict, a new round of suspicions and accusations.

Geopolitics after the shot

India’s reaction was swift. In his speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the attack “an act of terrorism that has a clear external trace” and promised that “the perpetrators – and those who cover them – will feel the consequences.”

The Indian government recalled its ambassador from Islamabad, expelled Pakistani diplomats from New Delhi, suspended visas for Pakistani citizens, and closed the key Attari-Wagah border crossing. The most high-profile gesture was the announcement of the termination of participation in the Indus Water Treaty, an agreement that has ensured the distribution of transboundary river flows between the two countries since 1960.

Islamabad responded in kind, expelling Indian diplomats, closing its airspace to Indian aircraft, and suspending the 1972 Shimla Agreement. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar warned that

“any interference by India in the water balance could be considered an act of aggression.”

When water becomes a weapon

The 1960 treaty regulated the distribution of water in the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. According to it, India gained control over the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) and Pakistan – over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelam, Chenab). These western rivers provide up to 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture and hydropower. However, they originate in India, in the Himalayas. Under a 1960 treaty, India pledged not to interfere with their free flow, but technically it retains the ability to build reservoirs, hydroelectric power plants, or canals that can regulate or temporarily retain water. A conditional blockage of the river flow, even for a few days, could critically affect Pakistan’s crops – and that is why the termination of the treaty turns water from a natural resource into a geopolitical lever.

Now the 1960 agreement is under threat.

Pakistan perceived New Delhi’s move as an act of aggression. The government of Islamabad warned that any attempt to change the water balance would be regarded as a military provocation and announced an appeal to the World Bank and the International Court of Justice. Meanwhile, farmers in Pakistan’s southern provinces, particularly in Sindh, are already sounding the alarm: water cutoffs could spell disaster for crops and millions of people.

Although India does not currently have the technical capability to cut off water instantly, the suspension of hydrological data exchange and the revision of river projects is already putting pressure on Islamabad. For the first time in more than 60 years, water is not just a resource, but a diplomatic lever and another point of escalation in a long-standing conflict.

Explosions on the line of control

Meanwhile, shelling has begun on the Line of Control in Kashmir, the de facto border between the two countries. In the days following the Baisaran tragedy, Indian and Pakistani troops engaged in at least a dozen firefights. There were reports of injuries on both sides.

Although the fighting remains localized, experts warn that any new escalation, especially in the face of emotional tension after the tragedy, could lead to a larger-scale escalation – not for the first time in the region.

International reaction: restraint instead of intervention

World leaders have called for restraint. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres held separate talks with both sides. The US, EU, UAE, and China expressed support for a peaceful settlement and warned of the risk of “uncontrolled escalation between the two nuclear powers.”

However, none of the parties demonstrates a willingness to compromise. For India, this is another proof of Pakistan’s inability to control terrorist groups. For Pakistan, it is a tool for consolidating domestic support and geopolitical pressure.

“This is not just a regional conflict anymore,” said Arvind Khanna, an analyst at the Delhi Center for Strategic Studies, “It is a national trauma that has just been reopened.

What’s next?

Despite numerous attempts at dialogue, neither country is ready to give in on the Kashmir issue. India refuses international mediation, considering it a purely internal matter. Pakistan insists on a “referendum” that will never happen.

Peace requires political will on both sides, which is currently lacking. In the meantime, the two nuclear giants stand opposite each other and show off their muscles.

Hope: Dancing on the brink of war

Despite decades of tension, at a time when there is no escalation, the border between India and Pakistan is witnessing a spectacle that is both impressive and disconcerting. At the Wagah border crossing, near Amritsar, every evening at 6:00 p.m. sharp, both sides stage a choreographed flag-lowering ceremony. Tall, rugged border guards in lavish dress uniforms march, competing in theatrics, sharp heel strikes, and demonstrative gestures. They throw glances at each other through their teeth, lift their legs high in the air, as if trying to hit the enemy with a boot rather than a bullet.

This ritual, which began in 1959 as a symbol of competitive dignity, has evolved over the years into a hybrid of military ceremony, circus show, and nationalistic performance. Thousands of spectators from both sides of the border gather daily in the stands, shouting patriotic slogans and applauding “their” soldiers. And while the line of control in other areas may explode with artillery fire, in Vagah both sides seem to have agreed to wage war without bullets for at least fifteen minutes, using only emotions and muscle.

Due to current events, unfortunately, this ritual has been suspended for now. We can only hope that it will be revived as soon as possible.

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