The food affordability index in Ukraine has declined. What is the reason?
1 April 11:56
In the context of the war, Ukrainians cannot provide themselves with basic food at the level they had before the full-scale invasion. This conclusion can be drawn on the basis of the Food Affordability Index, which is measured by the ratio of income to the cost of a standard basket of products. It is determined by the KSE Agricultural Center – the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics, informs
The “fresh” analytical review of the Center notes that before the full-scale invasion, the average Ukrainian could buy 9.5 food baskets. But after 5 months of war, this figure dropped by 19% due to rising prices and a one-third drop in income.
How the Food Affordability Index has continued to change and why
In 2023-2024, the Index showed a partial improvement, in particular due to lower prices for vegetables during the harvest and rising wages amid a labor shortage.
However, since September 2024, the Food Accessibility Index has returned to a negative trend: inflation and seasonal price increases have reduced its value to 8.5 in February 2025 (89% of the pre-war level).
The greatest improvement was observed in the western regions – Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, and Rivne oblasts. There, the indicator reached 96% of the level of January 2022. The situation is much worse in the frontline regions, as well as those subject to shelling – Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Odesa – where the situation is much worse. There, the Food Availability Index is only 82-86% of the level of January 2022.
How much does a food basket cost nowadays?
The average price of a grocery basket in large cities of Ukraine is currently UAH 1,215. The highest cost of a food basket is observed in Kyiv – UAH 1350.37. The lowest cost is in Ivano-Frankivsk (UAH 1148.85) and Kharkiv (UAH 1153.27).
The most favorable price-to-wage ratio is also observed in Kyiv. Residents of the capital spend about 5.5% of their income on a one-time purchase of food from the grocery basket. Lviv is slightly behind the capital – 5.8%. The least favorable ratio is in Ivano-Frankivsk – 9.1%. At the same time, the ratio of about 7% observed in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa can be considered an average indicator.
Food prices were on the rise in March
Vegetables were the most affected by the price increase. According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club’s Product Monitoring, tomatoes were the leader in the “Rise in price” category, up 39% over the month. Carrots also rose significantly in March, adding 30% to the retail price over the month.
Chicken and eggs also went up significantly: chicken carcass added 10%, fillet – 7%, thigh – 5%. Eggs also demonstrated price growth, rising by 10% over the month, reaching an average price of UAH 73.1 per dozen. Beef increased by 4%, pork by 1-2%.
Prices for milk rose by 11%, Dutch cheese by 7%, and cream by 5%. Grocery prices remained relatively stable. The exception to the general picture is sunflower oil, which rose by 4% over the month.
The only product that fell significantly in price was wheat flour, which lost 16% in value over the month and dropped to 25.8 UAH/kg.
