Imitation of peace instead of compromise: what is behind Russia’s initiative to negotiate in Istanbul
14 May 16:04
russia has already put forward its demands on the eve of the talks in Istanbul. During the talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, Russia plans to raise the previously voiced topics again, including the demand to recognize the territories it occupies as Russian.
This was announced by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
According to him, the key topics of the meeting on May 15 will include the “sustainable settlement” and the current situation on the ground, including territorial aspects.
Ryabkov once again repeated typical Kremlin statements about the causes of the war, mentioning the so-called “denazification of the Kyiv regime” and the need to accept “new realities,” meaning the actual annexation of Ukrainian lands.
“We will again raise the same issues that we have repeatedly voiced: how to achieve a reliable and lasting settlement of the situation, paying attention to the origins of the conflict. In particular, we are talking about the so-called denazification of the Kyiv authorities and the recognition of the new reality on the ground, including the accession of the occupied territories to the Russian Federation,” said Sergey Ryabkov.
What preceded it
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the initiative of Ukraine, the United States and the countries of the “Coalition of the Resolute” to end the fighting, which was scheduled for May 12. Instead, he expressed his intention to resume peace talks in Istanbul, scheduled for May 15. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready to join the talks only if Russia agreed to a ceasefire starting May 12.
Subsequently, Zelenskyy came up with his own initiative, proposing a high-level meeting in Istanbul and confirming his readiness to attend in person.
It is not yet known who will represent Russia at these talks, as Putin has not yet officially responded to Zelenskyy’s proposal.
The Kremlin is imitating its readiness for dialogue
Thus, on May 15, the delegations of Ukraine and Russia may meet in Istanbul. However, Vladimir Putin, as it turned out, will not participate in it. Instead, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov are preparing for a flight. Was it an attempt at a diplomatic game by the Kremlin, or something more? Military analyst and political expert Dmitry Snegiryov exclusively explained the situation for "Komersant Ukrainian".
“Russia was trying to create the impression of its own contractual capacity and at the same time to lead Ukraine into a diplomatic trap,” Snegiryov said.
According to him, Moscow’s proposal for talks in Istanbul came against the backdrop of a Western ultimatum calling for a 30-day truce. In response, Russia announced the closure of the airspace over the Kapustin Yar training ground, which effectively thwarted the initiative of Ukraine’s partners.
“Putin’s spokesman clearly said that Russia does not speak the language of ultimatums. At the same time, the Kremlin put forward its own agenda and proposed negotiations without the participation of the United States or Europe,” the expert adds.
Snegirev believes that Russia is using these initiatives to create the appearance of a peace process and block new sanctions.
“Europe has actually played on Russia’s field. They accepted its diplomatic game and postponed the sanctions until after the meeting in Istanbul. So, for a while, Moscow managed to avoid pressure,” he says.
A meeting that will not happen: playing with expectations
When the Kremlin announced the talks in Istanbul, it deliberately did not specify who would lead them. In response, the US and EU began talking about a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, and even Zelenskyy himself declared his readiness to personally arrive in Turkey on May 15.
“It was a trap. Russia subsequently lowered the level of representation, saying that it was only a working meeting, at most at the level of delegations. They deliberately reduced the subjectivity of both the meeting itself and the Ukrainian side,” explains Snegiryov.
The expert draws attention to an important legal detail: Ukraine has a National Security and Defense Council decision banning negotiations with representatives of the Russian Federation. However, the president’s participation in the meeting does not contradict this document.
“This is another move by the Kremlin to force Zelenskyy to personally participate in each such meeting. Because if he does not come, Russia will say: look, Ukraine is not ready for a dialogue,“ the analyst notes.
The Russians present these talks as “technical consultations” without promising any real results. Thus, the process may drag on for years, similar to the Minsk agreements.
“It’s not about signing agreements or actually ending the war. It all comes down to checking the clock. The process can take months or even years,“ the expert emphasizes.
The Kremlin is preparing to exert military pressure
While the diplomatic game continues, Russia may try to strengthen its positions at the front, particularly in the Donetsk sector.
“Russia is planning to intensify hostilities at the Pokrovske and Novopavlivka directions in order to break through to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovska oblast. If this succeeds, the Kremlin will have a significant trump card to put pressure on Ukraine during the negotiations,” Snegiryov warns.
Therefore, the talks in Istanbul are not about peace, but about manipulating the process and delaying time. The Kremlin is playing proactively, formally demonstrating its readiness for dialogue, but in reality using it as a cover to strengthen its position both diplomatically and on the battlefield.
