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Outage schedules can be canceled by the end of the week. But there is one condition

ANALYSIS

By the end of this week, the power outage schedules may be canceled. This was stated by Stanislav Ignatiev, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, on Kyiv 24 TV channel. According to him, in Ukraine, in the morning and evening hours in most regions, there are still restrictions on electricity supply, but only for one queue of household consumers. This is a rather positive indicator for the current state of the country’s energy system. If the situation does not get more complicated, in particular in the form of large-scale shelling, emergency repairs are expected to be completed by the end of this week.

“If there are no severe frosts, which are not expected according to the forecasts, we can do without new restrictions. The powerful Atlantic cyclone that is now passing through Ukraine from Siberia is already moving on quickly, and after it snows again, the temperature will not drop to critical levels,”

– Ignatiev said.

Komersant ukrainskyi looked into whether the power outage schedules could actually be canceled by the end of this week.

Andrian Prokip, Head of Energy Programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute, in an exclusive commentary spoke about the current state of the energy situation in the country and possible prospects for the winter period. According to Prokip, it is currently expected that there will be no problems with electricity transmission by the end of this week, unless there are unforeseen circumstances, such as a sharp drop in temperature or new shelling.

“Unless there is a sharp drop in temperature or new shelling, we will still be able to go through this week without blackout schedules. They may return due to shelling, accidents or a sharp drop in temperature,”

– he said.

Should we expect blackouts in winter?

Speaking about the winter period, Prokip emphasized that the situation will largely depend on the intensity of the shelling: how large-scale and regular it will be and how often it will occur. The number of attacks and their intensity will determine our ability to protect the energy infrastructure. Predicting possible scenarios, the expert said that in the worst-case scenario, power outages could last for a considerable time.

“I don’t want to predict catastrophic scenarios, but unfortunately, there is a reality: if something performs its function, it can be destroyed,”

– the energy expert noted, saying that even the best-built systems can be destroyed during intense shelling.

Prokip also pointed out that Ukrainians have become accustomed to power outages, especially after repeated blackouts in recent years.

“People want to believe that these blackouts will stop and that everything will be fine. Indeed, if there had been no shelling, we could have restored the power system in a year, given the scale of damage,”

– he emphasized.

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The forecast for the abolition of blackouts may not be so positive

At the same time, Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center, in a conversation with warned Ukrainians against excessive optimism about the possible cancellation of power outage schedules by the end of the week. However, he emphasized that there has already been a decrease in the duration of blackouts compared to last week.

“We cannot be categorical that the blackout schedules will be completed by the end of this week, because the weather is getting worse and not everything has been restored yet,”

– the expert noted.

According to Omelchenko, blackout schedules will occur throughout the war and for some time after it ends. This is directly related to the massive shelling, which makes it impossible to fully protect the power system from missiles.

“Because it’s clear that the main factor behind the introduction of these blackout schedules is massive shelling, from which there is no reliable protection. It is impossible to be 100% protected from these massive attacks, because energy facilities were not built to protect against ballistic missiles,”

– says the expert.

So, by the end of this week, the power outage schedules may be lifted if there is no more shelling and weather conditions remain stable. However, the complete cancellation of the blackouts should be expected only if there are no new threats to the power system. Experts say that blackouts are likely to continue throughout the war and for some time after it ends. Massive shelling leaves the power system vulnerable, and in such a situation, blackout schedules will become the norm for Ukrainians for a long time.

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Author: Darina Glushchenko