Geopolitical Zugzwang: Why Trump’s Proposals Trap Ukraine
21 April 10:07
OPINION
In recent days, the Ukrainian information space has been actively discussing a report by The Wall Street Journal that Donald Trump’s team is already preparing a plan to end the war in Ukraine. The proposals that are allegedly being discussed include Kyiv’s refusal to join NATO and the possible recognition of Crimea as part of Russia in exchange for a cessation of hostilities. Director of the Institute of World Policy, Candidate of Political Sciences Yevhen Magda on his Facebook page compared these proposals to a zugzwang – a chess situation where any move of a player only worsens his position, Komersant ukrainskyi reports
“Everyone has heard the term ‘zugzwang’, right? So, the proposals of the Trump team, which the WSJ writes about, are a classic geopolitical zugzwang,” Magda wrote.
Yevhen Magda emphasizes that Ukraine’s agreement to such conditions will lead to even greater political and security vulnerability. After all, Kyiv will face a number of factors for which Russia is better prepared:
“If we agree to them, then there will be elections, for which Russia is much better prepared than Ukraine,” the expert notes.
In addition, there is a serious risk of strengthening pro-Russian narratives in the US and the EU, which could become even more aggressive if Kyiv retreats:
“The activation of Putin’s fringe in the EU and the US (what did Trump say about prosperity?) and the Kremlin’s increased aggressiveness,” Magda adds.
The expert also emphasizes that the problems that Ukrainian society is already facing are not off the agenda: growing fatigue, the refugee crisis, economic difficulties, and post-traumatic stress disorder affecting millions of people.
“Well, the existing problems with refugees, the economy, and post-traumatic stress syndrome are not being removed,” summarizes Yevhen Magda.
According to the WSJ, the United States expects Kyiv to respond this week to ideas for ending the war. In particular, the refusal to join NATO and the possible recognition of Crimea as Russian by the United States.
According to the newspaper, the ideas presented in Paris include recognizing Crimea as Russian, excluding Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and declaring the area around the nuclear power plant a neutral territory that could be under Washington’s control.
At the same time, according to Western officials, the ideas put forward by representatives of the Trump team do not meet a number of Russian demands. In particular, the United States does not recognize that Russia has the legal right to control four regions in the eastern part of Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions). At the same time, Washington does not demand that Russian troops leave these areas. Bloomberg previously reported that the United States would consider recognizing Crimea as Russian.
“Accepting some of the Trump administration’s ideas could prove difficult for Kyiv, as Ukraine has refused to recognize that Russia has a legitimate claim to any of its territory,” the WSJ writes.
The US also does not seem to be proposing to limit the number of Ukrainian troops and does not rule out Western military support for Kyiv or the deployment of European troops in the country.
