Harris can beat Trump: British sociologists are optimistic about her chances of success
4 November 08:49
Kamala Harris is beating Donald Trump in the Republican state of Iowa, where Democrats last voted in 2012. This is reported by Axios, Komersant ukrainskyi informs.
According to a new poll of 808 potential Iowa voters, Harris is ahead of Trump by 20 percentage points among women, and among men, she has halved her lead since September. The poll shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
And this is not the only poll that adds optimism to the Harris team.
British “mega-poll”
The British sociological company Focaldata conducted a survey using its technology with a huge sample and predicts Kamala Harris’ advantage in the US presidential election. This was reported by Politico.
Focaldata surveyed more than 31,000 US voters over the past month for MRP, a statistical model that takes a massive national sample and then uses demographic data to estimate state-level election results.
It’s an innovative research method that has gained popularity in the UK in recent years and is considered more accurate than anything currently in wide use in the US. Sociologists exclusively shared the results of the study with Politico.
Combining the MRP poll with the results of its large-scale online survey in swing states, Focaldata predicts that Harris is likely to win Michigan by nearly 5 points, Nevada by about two points, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by small margins.
Focaldata also predicts that Trump will beat Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. The results of online polls and MRP modeling do not coincide in Arizona.
Harris’ advantage is partly due to her support among older white women. At the same time, Trump has an advantage among young black and Latino men.
As Focaldata’s chief researcher James Kanagasuriam noted, “Our MRP model showed Trump’s lead throughout the campaign, and only in the latest update did it change in favor of the Democratic candidate.”
