War

France is preparing for nuclear deterrence. Will Ukraine be under the “nuclear umbrella”?

PROGNOSIS

On March 5, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a discussion on the possibility of Paris using nuclear weapons to protect the entire European Union. In a televised address, he said that the future of Europe should be decided not by Washington or Moscow, but by Europeans themselves.

Macron expressed his intention to enter into a discussion with European allies on the use of France’s nuclear arsenal to defend the continent. However, he made it clear that the use of these weapons would remain under the exclusive control of the French president.

This proposal comes at a time when the United States is reconsidering its commitment to military funding for Ukraine, raising concerns about the reliability of its support for Europe. Macron emphasized the need for Europe to strengthen its own defense and not remain passive in the face of Russian threats.

Russia has already responded to the French leader’s statement. In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that France’s statements about the nuclear defense of Europe threaten Russia’s existence and compared Emmanuel Macron to Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler.

[Kommersant] spoke to experts to understand what an ideal “nuclear shield” for Ukraine should look like and whether European allies can realize it.

What should a “nuclear umbrella” for Ukraine look like?

Mykola Kapitonenko , an analyst at the International Center for Policy Studies, believes that the ideal option for Kyiv today is a “nuclear umbrella “¹ that the United States had during the Cold War with the Soviet Union.

In this case, it means that a country with a huge deterrent potential and a large number of nuclear weapons demonstrates its determination to use its arsenal if another nuclear power threatens the security of its allies. In this case, it will use either its nuclear weapons or conventional weapons.

“But in practice, this rarely happens very much, because rarely any state is ready to give such a high level of security guarantees to other states. In fact, it is an obligation to risk nuclear war if there is a threat to another state,” the expert noted.

Does the world have experience in countering nuclear threats in this way?

According to Mykola Kapitonenko, such steps should be spelled out in doctrines. And they tend to change over time.

“Perhaps there were some revisions of the nuclear doctrines of the United States or Russia, where they extended their security guarantees to other states. I cannot say for sure, because they do not always work at the level of official announcements. And there are a lot of different guesses and calculations in nuclear deterrence that are not public,” explained the analyst of the International Center for Policy Studies.

Nuclear defense for Ukraine: who can provide it?

According to Mykola Kapitonenko, France itself has a small nuclear arsenal. If Paris tries to deter Russia, it will face a reliability problem. And here the question will inevitably arise whether France will risk its existence in a war with a nuclear power that has much more nuclear weapons. France has several hundred warheads, while Russia has about 5,000.

“This makes French nuclear guarantees less reliable, much more so than the United States’ guarantees during the Cold War. Because there was nuclear parity between the United States and the Soviet Union at that time. And between France and Russia it is not even close. This creates great risks for France. And only such conditional or weak guarantees for those European states to which it will be extended,” the analyst summarized.

European nuclear potential: how powerful is it and which countries have such weapons?

Valeriy Romanenko , aviation expert and leading researcher at the State Aviation Museum, explains that two countries in Europe have nuclear weapons. The first is the United Kingdom, with its nuclear weapons concentrated on submarines. However, they use American missiles. We are talking about British Royal Navy and Resolution class submarines.

“They have at least 16 or 24 intercontinental ballistic missiles. This is the biggest threat to Russia. That is, this salvo will be enough, since only Moscow is more or less protected in this regard. For the European part of Russia, these missiles from four submarines will be enough,” Romanenko said.

Speaking about whether Europe will be able to use nuclear missile launchers, the expert first of all drew attention to tactical aviation. Namely, the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters.

“This is enough to tactically sweep away the Russian regions adjacent to Ukraine. To completely destroy them if a war breaks out. They are unlikely to fly further. But in general, both countries (France and the United Kingdom – ed.) have quite powerful nuclear forces, which, of course, cannot be compared in any way with the US, because they have both strategic aviation and long-range missiles,” the aviation expert said.

Continuing the conversation about the world’s nuclear potential, he emphasized that the Americans also have land-based missiles in silo and mobile launchers. We should also not forget about strategic aviation.

“This is what makes them different: a serious component in England and France is only submarines with missiles, while the Americans have a powerful aviation part of the strategic component and ground-based missiles in silo launchers. And the fleet of American submarines is much larger,” explained Valerii Romanenko.

Therefore, if we take all the nuclear capabilities of the Western world, the following will be revealed: The United States has 90% of the nuclear potential, while France and the United Kingdom have only 10%.

Ukraine and its nuclear status: can Kyiv regain its former power?

Most experts today doubt whether Ukraine will be able to have its own weapons again and become a full-fledged member of the “club of nuclear powers.” For example, analyst Mykola Kapitonenko emphasized that the price of possessing nuclear weapons is currently very high. In fact, it was so even in peacetime, when Ukraine was stronger.

“I have never believed that there are any opportunities for Ukraine to become a nuclear power again, because there is a proliferation regime, there are large nuclear powers that are against other states acquiring nuclear weapons,” the expert expressed his vision of the situation.

This leads to another problematic situation: will Ukraine be able to effectively use nuclear warheads even if it receives them?

“We will not be able to effectively threaten Russia, which has about 5,000 nuclear weapons. Its position in this war of threats will be much stronger than ours. And to start a nuclear war against Russia… we have enough nuclear potential to destroy several Russian cities, perhaps if the missiles reach. And they have enough potential to destroy us completely,” Kapitonenko said and added that, in his opinion, Ukraine should continue to remain a non-nuclear state.

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1. Nuclear umbrella is a guarantee from a Nuclear Club state to protect a non-nuclear weapon state. It is mainly used to describe the United States’ security alliances with Japan, South Korea, NATO (most of Europe, Turkey, Canada), and Australia, and dates back to the Cold War with the USSR. ↩︎