The Source of Threats: Why Iran’s Neighbors Want It to Fail
20 June 13:42
ANALYSIS
In the confrontation between Iran and Israel, the sympathies of almost all of its neighbors are tilted toward the Jewish state. And this is despite the fact that most of Iran’s neighboring countries (with the exception of Armenia) are Muslim states that traditionally condemn Israel’s policies.
Why are the peoples of the Middle East, who profess the same religion as the Iranians, who share a common historical past and a similar mentality, so concerned about Iran’s policy? The answer lies in its foreign policy doctrine.
Exporting the Revolution
After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran has been actively promoting its own ideology and geopolitical interests, using both direct and indirect instruments of influence: support for proxy groups, financing of Shiite movements, and interference in the internal affairs of neighboring countries.
This strategy is called “exporting the Islamic revolution.” It has been openly declared by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and it has become the basis of Iranian foreign policy. It is implemented through proxy wars, propaganda of Shiite Islam, and religious expansion in the region.
For more than 40 years, this approach of Tehran has been causing anxiety among its neighbors, who perceive Iran as an existential threat.
The war with Iraq
After the revolution, then-Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini called for the overthrow of “infidel” regimes and support for Islamic uprisings in the region, particularly in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
In 1980, an eight-year war broke out between Iran and Iraq. Despite the fact that Iraq was the first to attack Iran, the role of Iranian ideological expansion as a precondition for the conflict cannot be ignored. Tehran’s attempts to export revolution, sectarian interference, and subversive activities inside Iraq contributed to the escalation.
Although the war ended without a decisive victory, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein ‘s regime in 2003, Iran’s influence on Iraq increased significantly.
It should be noted that in Iraq, the majority of the population professes Shiite Islam, as in Iran, which allows Tehran to influence political processes through religion.
Although Iraq is trying to maintain its independence from Iran, Tehran’s influence is causing concern in Baghdad. The Iraqi authorities are cautious about their neighbor and fear its destabilizing factor.
Azerbaijan: the paradox of Shiite solidarity
One of the most controversial aspects of Iran’s foreign policy is its attitude to the predominantly Shiite but secular Azerbaijan. Instead of supporting Baku in its conflict with Christian Armenia, Iran has traditionally sided with Yerevan. The reason is geopolitical: Tehran is trying to curb the growing influence of Azerbaijan, which has close ties with Israel and Turkey.
In addition, Iran is home to a large Azerbaijani community (30-50% of the population), and the authorities fear the growth of separatist sentiment.
The Iranian authorities view Azerbaijan through the prism of the imperial past, as part of the once unified Iranian state. For this reason, in its political discourse, Tehran often alludes to Azerbaijan’s “historical affiliation” with Iran, questioning its statehood.
It is not surprising that a significant number of Azerbaijanis – according to polls – consider Iran to be the main external threat to their independence.
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Yemen and the Houthis
Iran has been actively supporting the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, a country engulfed in civil war since 2014. The Houthis are a Shiite military group fighting the Sunni government. Tehran supplies them with weapons, funding, and technology.
Since 2015, after Saudi Arabia’s intervention, the Houthis have begun using Iranian-made ballistic missiles and drones to attack Saudi territory and later Israel. Such support allows Iran to expand its sphere of influence, keeping two more Arab countries – the UAE and Bahrain – in tension.
Arab monarchies are under threat
Tensions in Iran’s relations with the UAE and Bahrain are not only due to the Yemeni conflict.
With the UAE, Iran has a long-standing territorial dispute over three islands in the Persian Gulf – Greater Tunbu, Lesser Tunbu and Abu Musa. Since 1992, Tehran has tightened its control over Abu Musa, restricting access to the Emirati authorities. This has led to a protracted diplomatic conflict.
With Bahrain, tensions increased after the events of 2011, when the country was engulfed in mass protests. Tehran presented them as an uprising of the oppressed Shiite majority (over 70% of the population) against the Sunni monarchy. Fearing the overthrow of the regime, Bahrain requested assistance from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which suppressed the protests by force.
Support for Assad
Syria was another country where disagreements between the government and demonstrators escalated into a bloody conflict.
Iran played a key role in supporting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. It provided economic, military and logistical assistance, including sending thousands of Iranian special forces (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Shiite militias from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The war in Syria was fought under religious banners. Iran supported Assad and the entire top leadership, who were representatives of the remote Shiite Alawite branch. The Syrians, who are mostly Sunni Muslims, fought with Shiite heretics for 13 years under the banner of Jihad.
After the rebels’ victory in Syria in 2024, the slogan “The Umayyads are back!” became popular, an allegory for the era of the Sunni Umayyad dynasty, hated by Shiites, with its capital in Damascus.
The Lebanese game
Iran has been and continues to increase sectarian tensions in Lebanon. This Arab country is rich in religious diversity. From 30 to 40% of its population are Christians (predominantly Maronite Christians), and 60% are Muslims, with equal numbers of Shiites and Sunnis.
Through its support of the Shiite organization Hezbollah, Iran has gained significant influence in Lebanon. This organization has become a powerful military and political force acting as a “state within a state”, controlling a significant part of the Shiite community in Lebanon.
Although Iran’s influence in Lebanon has weakened after Hezbollah’s military failures and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Tehran continues to provide financial support for infrastructure and social projects, while maintaining an ideological connection with the Shiite community.
Iran as a regional destabilizer
For decades, Iran’s interference in the affairs of neighboring states has systematically undermined stability in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic’s defeat in the war with Israel will potentially reduce the level of the Tehran threat.
Without Iran as a driver of proxy conflicts, religious extremism, and humanitarian crises, the region will have a chance to stabilize and reduce sectarian tensions.
Iran must lose, if only because peace in the region must finally prevail.
Asif Aliyev, specially for "Komersant Ukrainian"
