Diplomatic game and “time until summer”: what is preventing talks between trump and Putin?

27 January 21:10

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that serious negotiations on ending the war should begin by the summer of 2024. Otherwise, he said, processes could begin that would threaten the very existence of Ukraine. This was reported by Ukrayinska Pravda with reference to a recent closed meeting of the leadership of the Verkhovna Rada and factions with representatives of the Defense Forces command. However, the Kremlin allegedly declares its readiness to talk, but does not name any specific dates.

According to the journalists’ interlocutor, the speeches of representatives of the General Staff and other military structures were informative, but the most emotional moment of the meeting came after Budanov’s answer.

“Someone asked him how much time we still have. And Kyrylo answered with his cold smile: “If there are no serious negotiations by the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may start.” Everyone looked at each other and fell silent. Apparently, we need to make it work,” said one of the participants of the meeting.

Obviously, Budanov’s statement demonstrates the seriousness of the situation at the front and the need to intensify diplomatic efforts.

7 days of the diplomatic game: who should call whom?

Earlier it became known that Trump instructed his aides to organize a phone call with Putin in the first days after his inauguration. The leaders are expected to discuss bilateral relations and the situation in Ukraine. Moreover, the US president has repeatedly stated that he wants to talk to the Kremlin leader as soon as possible.

“I would be happy to meet with Putin as soon as possible to end this war. Millions of lives, wonderful young people are dying on the battlefield. People are dying. I’ve seen the pictures of what’s going on, it’s a real slaughter,” Trump said on January 23.

At the same time, Putin is allegedly ready to contact US President-elect Donald Trump, but Moscow is waiting for signals from Washington. This was reported by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on January 24. Three days later, on January 27, he said that the Kremlin had received no signals from the Americans. Therefore, according to Peskov, Moscow is working “according to its own schedule.” And, therefore, continues the war in Ukraine.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced that Russian leader Putin is using Donald Trump’s desire for peace to his advantage. The head of state said this in his evening address.

“He (Putin – ed.) wants to manipulate the desire of the President of the United States of America to achieve peace. But I am confident that no Russian manipulations will succeed anymore,” Zelenskyy emphasized.

The New York Times emphasizes that US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin have been playing a diplomatic game for seven days, hinting at the need for a personal meeting to end the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian side has so far remained outside this process.

Moreover, over the past week, Trump’s rhetoric toward Russia has undergone significant changes. He sharply criticized Putin, saying he was “destroying Russia,” and threatened new sanctions and tariffs if Moscow did not agree to negotiate. Although such economic pressure has limited effect due to the small trade turnover between the US and Russia, it indicates a change in Washington’s approach.

The Kremlin is waiting for a signal from Trump to avoid showing weakness

Moscow does not want to initiate negotiations with Washington on its own, as this could be perceived as a sign of weakness. This opinion was expressed by military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak in a commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi.

“I have seen Peskov’s statements that the Kremlin is ready for negotiations and is waiting for a signal. This is a classic tactic of former KGB and FSB officers. They fundamentally do not want to make contact themselves, because in their environment it looks like an admission of weakness. They are waiting for the other side to take the initiative – in this case, the Trump administration,” explains Stupak.

The expert compares the situation to a historical moment in the early 2000s, when Putin was trying to establish relations with NATO.

“Back then, Putin approached the Alliance’s leadership with a proposal to accept Russia into NATO, but said that it was the Alliance that should take the first step. The Secretary General was surprised and explained that candidate countries apply independently. However, Putin insisted: “We are a big country, you should invite us.” This demonstrates their psychological attitude: “let them, but not me”. They are waiting for Trump in the same way now,” Stupak said.

In his opinion, the Kremlin’s current behavior shows that the Russian leadership is seeking an external initiative for negotiations to demonstrate to the domestic electorate that it is not they who are making concessions, but they are being treated as a “stronger party.”

Thus, the situation around possible negotiations to end the war in Ukraine is gaining momentum. The head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, emphasizes the need for serious diplomatic efforts by the summer of 2024, as further delay could threaten the very existence of the state. At the same time, there is a game of expectations in international politics: Trump declares his readiness to negotiate with Putin, while the Kremlin takes a wait-and-see attitude, unwilling to take the initiative. All of this demonstrates the complexity of the geopolitical situation and the Kremlin’s desire to keep Ukraine out of key negotiations.

Anastasiia Fedor
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