Putin’s two motives: what is the logic of Russian shelling after the attack on airfields?
3 June 14:34
ANALYSIS
Russia launched another massive shelling of Ukrainian cities a day after a successful Ukrainian attack on Russian military airfields and the day after a round of peace talks in Istanbul. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked Ukrainian political experts whether this time the enemy’s actions have any special message for Ukraine and the world.
Revenge for humiliation and domestic political pressure
Experts see several strategic motives behind the Kremlin’s actions. And revenge for the humiliation that Ukraine inflicted on Russia with its attack on strategic aviation is also among them, explains political scientist Maksym Yali the logic of Russian actions. According to him, the strikes on Ukrainian cities are meant to cover the internal uproar in Russia over military defeats.
“Of course, the authorities need to stop the uproar that has now erupted in Russia because of this humiliation,”
– says the expert in an exclusive commentary
Yali emphasizes that the most exalted part of Russian society, which supports the killing of Ukrainians and advocates for the war to the end, needs compensation for military failures.
“Accordingly, it is necessary to give them the opportunity to enjoy the new deaths of Ukrainians,”
– states the political scientist, adding that this scenario was quite expected.
Creation of a “buffer zone” by terror
The expert sees the second motive for the Russian shelling in attempts to implement the scenario of creating a so-called buffer zone.
“If we are talking about Sumy, a regional center that they cannot capture by force (the same applies to Kharkiv), they are trying to get as close as possible for the strikes of barrel artillery,”
– yali explains.
According to his analysis, the Russians have begun to use multiple launch rocket systems more actively to terrorize the population.
“They are doing this to terrorize the population and thus influence public opinion in Ukraine. To tip the scales, so to speak, to force Ukraine under internal political pressure, in particular, to make maximum concessions in the negotiations,”
– the expert reveals the Kremlin’s strategy.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
Coincidence with negotiations and a signal from the United States
Regarding the coincidence of the shelling with the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to the United States, Yali believes it was a coincidence, but with an important signal for Washington.
“I think Yermak’s visit to the US is just a coincidence. But, in any case, with these attacks, Russia is demonstrating to the United States that it will continue to put pressure, despite the number of civilian casualties,”
– the political scientist concludes.
Imitation of negotiations and further escalation
Political analyst Stanislav Zhelikhovsky also sees Russia’s actions in the context of an overall escalation strategy. Moreover, he believes that Russian participation in the “peace” talks is only a cover for further hostilities.
“This means that the Russian Federation continues to carry out its aggression. And, in fact, all we have seen recently is an imitation of the negotiation process,”
– he states in the commentary
Zhelikhovsky predicts further escalation on the part of Russia and an aggravation of the situation at the front. According to his analysis, Putin is trying to make a military breakthrough to strengthen his negotiating position.
“Because for Putin, the main thing now is to make a possible breakthrough, about which there is already a lot of information. And, obviously, he would like to advance on the battlefield, strengthen his negotiating position, and then return to the negotiation process on a different basis,”
– the political scientist explains the Russian leader’s logic.
Nervousness over Ukrainian diplomacy
Zhelikhovsky also sees Russia’s actions as a reaction to Ukraine’s diplomatic activity.
“Obviously, Putin is nervous because the Ukrainian delegation went to the United States. That is, we have a dialog and we are still working to increase pressure on Moscow,”
– the expert analyzes.
The political scientist characterizes the results of the Istanbul talks as predictable and fruitless. He agrees that Russia is only imitating the peace process, and claims that the Russians are not interested in ending the hostilities. Russia is planning to advance on the frontline, Zhelikhovsky claims.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
