Economy

US dollar rises in price amid Trump’s trade wars

The US dollar today strengthened against most major world currencies, including the Swiss franc and the euro, Komersant ukrainskyi reports citing Reuters.

Thus, the dollar strengthened by 0.11% to 0.883 against the Swiss franc. The euro fell by 0.28% to $1.0856, but remains near the five-month high of $1.09470 reached earlier this week.

Investors consolidated their positions after the sell-off in the US currency for most of this week. However, the dollar’s outlook remains weak due to concerns about slower economic growth caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies.

US President Donald Trump’ s latest trade initiative was to threaten to impose a 200% tariff on wine, cognac, and other alcoholic beverages imported from Europe. This, of course, opened a new front in the global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised fears of a recession.

On Wednesday, Trump also threatened to retaliate against the EU’s announcement of countermeasures in the form of tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. imports starting next month.

At the same time, data from the US Department of Labor released on Thursday showed that producer prices in the US unexpectedly remained unchanged on a monthly basis in February. However, the prospect of tariffs is unlikely to keep prices low in the coming months.

“We have seen a very significant weakening of the dollar in the previous days and weeks, and it feels like we are entering a period of consolidation. We see the possibility of a dollar recovery as we continue to be bombarded with news about tariffs and as we approach this deadline for reciprocal duties in early April,”

– said Vasily Serebryakov, currency strategist at UBS in New York. He raised his year-end forecast for the euro against the dollar to $1.120 from $0.990.

Meanwhile, Germany’s fiscal reset plan provided additional support for the euro. Germany’s outgoing lower house of parliament will hold a special session on Thursday to discuss a €500 billion fund for infrastructure and defense in Europe’s largest economy. This also makes adjustments to exchange rate indicators.

“We expect the dollar to consolidate and recover, but it will depend on how much trade policy and tariffs will outweigh the factors weakening the dollar, which are the European economic recovery, fiscal spending, and weaker US data,”

– predicts Vasily Serebryakov.

Dollar to hryvnia exchange rate

As of March 19, 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine has set the official dollar exchange rate at UAH 41.5658, which is 12 kopecks more than the day before. Thus, the US currency has risen in value in Ukraine after two days of decline.

On the interbank market, trading is taking place in the range of UAH 41.57-41.60 per dollar, which corresponds to the previous day’s closing level.

In exchange offices, the average dollar selling rate increased by 5 kopecks to 41.85 hryvnia, while the average dollar buying rate is 41.35 hryvnia.

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Trump’s trade wars

Donald Trump’s administration has imposed trade restrictions on China, Mexico and Canada, the three largest trading partners of the United States. The US government imposed an import duty of 25% of the value of goods from Canada and Mexico, and 20% on goods from China. An additional duty is imposed on Canadian energy products.

These measures have caused concern among U.S. companies that depend on metal imports from Canada and Mexico. They are expected to look for alternative sources of supply, in particular in the Middle East, India, Chile, and Peru, which could lead to higher prices for aluminum and copper in the United States.

In addition, Canadian consumers reacted to the imposition of duties by boycotting American goods, canceling trips to the United States and refusing to buy American alcohol.

Economists warn that such trade disputes could slow global economic growth and cause inflation. Stock markets in the Gulf countries earlier reacted with a decline due to fears of a possible trade conflict. The cryptocurrency market also collapsed earlier.

All tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025

1. Tariffs on steel and aluminum

• Announced: february 10, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 12, 2025.
• Rate: 25% on all imported steel and aluminum products.
• Additional: Trump said that all duty-free steel products must be “melted and cast” in the United States, and aluminum products must be “smelted and cast.”

2. Tariffs on Chinese goods

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: february 4, 2025 (10%), March 4, 2025 (increased to 20%).
• Rate: 20% on all Chinese goods.

3. Tariffs on goods from Canada

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 4, 2025.
• Rate: 25% on all Canadian goods (exception: 10% on energy).
• Adjustments: on March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were postponed until April 2, 2025.

4. Tariffs on goods from Mexico

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 4, 2025.
• Rate: 25% on all Mexican goods.
• Adjustments: on March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were postponed until April 2, 2025.

5. Tariffs on Canadian oil, gas and potash fertilizers (potash)

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 4, 2025.
• Rate: 10%.
• Adjustments: on March 6, the potash tariff was reduced to 10% and all energy tariffs were postponed until April 2, 2025.

6. De minimis suspension for China, Mexico and Canada

• Announced: February 2025.
• Action: Duty exemptions on low-value imported goods are temporarily canceled.
• Adjustments: on February 7, 2025, Trump reinstated the exemptions.

7. Plan to implement “recycle tariffs”

• Announced: february 13, 2025
• Expected launch: april 2, 2025
• What it means: calculation of duties based on the trade balance and tax rates of the US partners

8. Tariffs on copper

• Announced: march 12, 2025.
• Expected implementation: in the nearest future.

9. Threats of tariffs on the EU

• Announced: february 2, 2025.
• Expected implementation: uncertain.
• Possible measures: 200% tariff on alcohol from the EU.

10. Investigation into Canadian timber

• Announced: march 1, 2025.
• Possibility of imposing tariffs due to the threat to US national security.

Tariffs of other countries in response to Trump’s policy

Canada

First round of tariffs

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 4, 2025.
• Rate: 25%.
• Amount: uSD 20.8 billion. U.S. dollars (C$30 billion).
• Adjustments: on March 6, Canada postponed the expansion of tariffs to 86 billion dollars. The tariffs were postponed to USD 86 billion (CAD 125 billion).

Second round of tariffs

• Announced: march 12, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 13, 2025.
• Rate: 25%.
• Amount: uSD 20.6 billion. USD (29.8 billion Canadian dollars).
• Main products: steel, aluminum, industrial and agricultural products.

China

First round of tariffs

• Announced: february 1, 2025.
• Entered into force: february 4, 2025.
• Rate:
  • 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas.
  • 10% on oil and agricultural machinery.
• Additional measures:
  • Restrictions on exports of certain metals (including tungsten).
  • Adding PVH Corp. and Illumina to the list of unreliable entities.
  • Antitrust investigation against Google.

The second round of tariffs

• Announced: march 4, 2025.
• Entered into force: march 10, 2025.
• Rate:
  • 15% on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.
  • 10% on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, vegetables, fruits and dairy products.
• Additional measures:
  • Suspension of imports of American timber.
  • Revocation of soybean import licenses for three US companies.

European Union

The first stage of tariffs

• Announced: march 12, 2025.
• Expected implementation: april 1, 2025.
• Rate: not specified.
• Amount: eUR 4.5 billion.
• Main products: consumer goods from the United States.

Second phase of tariffs

• Expected implementation: mid-April 2025.
• Amount: 18 billion euros.
• Main products: steel, aluminum, household appliances, wood, poultry, beef and other food products.

Additional events

• march 13, 2025: The EU announced a 50% tariff on American whiskey.
• Trump responded by threatening a 200% tariff on alcohol from the EU.

Colombia

• Announced: january 26, 2025.
• Rate: 25%.
• Reason: a dispute over the deportation of Colombian citizens from the United States.
• Result: The Colombian government agreed to accept the deportees and the escalation of tariffs was stopped.

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