Dollar at 50 UAH? Economists are sceptical about the IMF forecast
24 October 11:41The International Monetary Fund has revised its exchange rate forecast for Ukraine upwards: the Fund now predicts that the dollar will reach UAH 50 in 2028, rather than in 2027, as previously forecast. However, Ukrainian economists, who Komersant Ukrainian asked to comment on this forecast, are rather sceptical.
“Forecasting three years in advance is a thankless task. The IMF is one of the worst forecasters if you compare them with the World Bank and even the NBU. They are regularly wrong in their forecasts,”
– says economist Oleg Getman in an exclusive commentary
According to him, the exchange rate is currently in a managed flexibility mode and directly depends on the actions of the National Bank. However, it is still impossible to predict the exchange rate in 2028.
“It will depend on a number of fundamental factors. Currently, the exchange rate is not in a flexible exchange rate regime, but in a managed flexibility regime, so it directly depends on where the NBU directs it. The NBU has enough foreign exchange reserves now and will have them next year, as the funds from international partners are much larger than we spend. And we are accumulating foreign exchange reserves,”
– the expert explains.
Therefore, the Ukrainian national currency is absolutely stable, predictable and will be slightly adjusted in accordance with the budget and the actions of the NBU, he says.
“We can expect that every year it will devalue by 1-2 hryvnias to the dollar, i.e. it will slowly weaken. So, this forecast looks strange, and forecasting for three years ahead in general,”
– hetman concluded.
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Economic expert Oleg Pendzin is also critical of the IMF’s forecast.
“They predicted that the war would end in September 2024. Therefore, it is very difficult to comment on IMF forecasts. Not all forecasts come true,”
– the expert says and adds that when predicting the future, the IMF proceeds solely from its own ideology, which may differ significantly from what will happen in reality.
“Can the IMF say what will happen, for example, on 10 November, after the US elections? In terms of international financing and, say, the flow of funds. No, it can’t, because a lot depends on Trump’s personality. Or on Harris’s personality. So why are we talking about 2028 now, when neither we nor they know what will happen in two weeks?”
– Pendzin concludes, calling for maximum caution with regard to long-term forecasts.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has received another tranche of the IMF loan.