What is Putin preparing for and how long will the war last?
16 April 18:49
ANALYSIS FROM 
Despite loud diplomatic gestures and statements about “readiness for negotiations,” Russia is not going to curtail its aggression against Ukraine. On the contrary, in the summer of 2025, the Kremlin is planning a new offensive, as Ukrainian intelligence officers have openly stated. Is Ukraine ready and does military assistance from the DPRK change the course of the war – read more in the article
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, emphasizes that everything Russia is doing in the negotiations with the United States is just an attempt to gain time. At this time, the Russian army is receiving critical support from North Korea. According to an investigation by Reuters and the Open Source Center, over the past two years, the DPRK has sent at least 64 arms shipments to Russia – millions of shells, missiles, and artillery.
Ukrainian military intelligence indicates that up to 70% of all ammunition used by Russian artillery today is North Korean. The Kremlin is not just not weakening, it is rearming itself in preparation for new waves of attacks.
Lukashenko and the “migrant army”: a hybrid threat to Europe
Another dangerous signal comes from Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko has agreed to import 150,000 Pakistani citizens, ostensibly as labor. But experts, including political strategist Boris Tizenhausen, warn that this could be part of a hybrid operation to destabilize the EU. The flow of refugees in such numbers can be used as a tool of pressure, as it was already the case in 2021 on the Polish-Belarusian border.
Vladyslav Selezniov, a military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and former spokesman for the General Staff, is confident that no scenario can be ruled out.
“Three years ago, we could not even imagine that Putin’s Russia would take artillery shells from North Korea, receive Iranian Shahids, or engage mercenaries from China,” emphasizes Selezniov.
According to him, we are already dealing with a global supply network that feeds the Russian army, allowing it to hold the front and prepare for further actions. Russia is looking for mercenaries around the world.
“The president mentioned 150,000, and later there was information about 200 mercenaries from China. I had the opportunity to talk to Chinese experts, and they confirmed that these are not peasants. Their behavior, speech, and psychotypes indicate that they could have had military training,” noted Selezniov.
As for the potential threat of an offensive from the territory of Belarus, Selezniov believes that this scenario is currently unlikely, but it should not be completely dismissed.
“To scale the operation to Eastern Europe, the Russians need much more resources. Even if we are talking about potential 150 thousand “migrants” in Belarus, this is not enough for a real invasion. But if the frontline stabilizes and there is an operational pause, they can use it to accumulate forces,” Selezniov explains.
According to Selezniov, today the Russians keep up to 620-630 thousand personnel at the front, with a constant compensatory mechanism that allows them to recruit new contract soldiers in the amount of 30-40 thousand people every month.
At the same time, he warns that the situation is dynamic, and much can change over the next six months. Ukrainian forces should closely monitor the movement of enemy units, especially towards the Belarusian border.
“Let’s monitor the movement of enemy forces and means. This will give us an answer whether Putin is preparing for a new escalation scenario,” Vladyslav Selezniov summarized.
Joint exercises and nuclear threats
Lukashenko also announced large-scale joint military exercises with Russia in September 2025. History repeats itself – it was after similar exercises that a full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
At the same time, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, openly threatens Poland and the Baltic states, calling them the “first victims” in the event of a conflict with NATO. Russian officials are again raising the issue of nuclear weapons and spreading fakes about Warsaw and Vilnius’ “aggressive plans.”
russia wants to expand its influence in the Pacific region
Moreover, while the world’s attention is focused on the war in Ukraine, Russia is trying to expand its influence in the Pacific region. A new step is an attempt to gain access to the Indonesian air base Manuhua, located just 1300 kilometers from Australia. The Kremlin has not commented on this, but Western and Ukrainian analysts are already making assessments.
In a commentary for
“So far, as of today, I see it more as something irrational. This is an attempt to expand its influence without being tied to any specific area, territory or part of the ocean,” Ivan Stupak
Indonesia, although it has a strategic position in the Pacific Ocean, is not an obvious foothold for military action, according to the expert.
“Yes, Indonesia is a country that borders Australia. But Australia is not such a big player. This is more about Russia’s attempt to stretch its influence,” Ivan Stupak believes.
He also reminded that military bases have always had a certain symbolic meaning for the Kremlin. In the 2000s, Russia deliberately abandoned some of its foreign facilities, particularly in Vietnam and Cuba, but now there is a different trend.
“The Russians feel very vulnerable compared to the Americans. Putin once closed the Katran naval base in Vietnam and the huge Lourdes electronic surveillance base in Cuba. The rent of the latter alone cost 100 million dollars a year, and the same amount was spent on its maintenance,” Ivan Stupak
According to the analyst, Moscow’s current attempts to return to the active deployment of its bases abroad are, in particular, a response to the competition with the United States for geopolitical influence.
“In Syria, something has been retained, and it is not clear what exactly. And then there is the option of Indonesia. Let’s see what it will bring over time,” Ivan Stupak
Despite the strategic distance of Indonesia from Ukraine, the expert believes that Russia’s attempt to gain a foothold in the Pacific Ocean may even have some positive effects for Kyiv.
“As for me, let them deploy. This is even more spending from the Russian budget. The less money there is in the budget for the war, the better for us,” Stupak concluded.
Let me remind you that the Manuhua air base has previously hosted Russian strategic aircraft in agreement with the Indonesian side. After Shoigu’s meeting with the Indonesian Defense Minister in February 2025, Moscow submitted a request for permanent use of the base.
How long will the war last? Today no analyst dares to answer this question clearly. But one thing is clear today: Russia has no intention of ending the war; it is preparing to escalate it even further. At the same time, the events of recent months play in Ukraine’s favor. The world order is changing. The threat that Putin poses to the entire continent is forcing Europe to unite and act more decisively.
