The Centre for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has published possible scenarios of blackouts this winter. The worst case scenario envisages blackouts of up to 20 hours a day, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
Thus, the CPD cites the opinion of Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies, who outlined several possible scenarios for the development of the situation in the energy sector of Ukraine in the autumn-winter period.
The optimistic scenario assumes stable operation of 8-9 nuclear power units, a mild winter without severe frosts and the restoration of about 3 GW of the 6 GW of damaged capacity. Under these conditions, power outages of up to 12 hours per day are possible.
The pessimistic scenario considers a situation where only about 2,000 megawatts of capacity can be restored, 6-7 NPP units will be in operation, and the winter will be cold. In this case, the power system could be in a crisis.
“Under the worst-case scenario, if Russia continues to attack the Ukrainian energy sector, Ukrainians may spend up to 20 hours a day without electricity and heating this winter,”
– the statement said.
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At the same time, Serhiy Nagornyak, a member of the Verkhovna Rada’ s Energy Committee, predicts that at -10°C, Ukrainians will probably have electricity for only 12-14 hours a day, and the rest of the time – about 10 hours – will be without electricity.
Experts emphasise that it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of prolonged blackouts due to the unpredictable consequences of possible new Russian attacks and weather conditions.
In addition, the National Security and Defence Council’s Central Intelligence Department emphasises that the Ukrainian government has high hopes for Western assistance. During the Ukrainian delegation’s visit to the United States, agreements were reached on a strategy for restoring and modernising Ukraine’s energy system. The US provided Ukraine with a financial aid package of $800 million to strengthen energy security.
Nevertheless, the National Security and Defence Council’s Disinformation Counteraction Centre recommends that businesses and households take care of backup power systems, such as power banks, charging stations, diesel generators, solar panels and inverters, to be prepared for possible emergency power outages.