Policy

Dialogue between the US and Russia does not mean that Ukraine is being “merged” – Zhelikhovsky

OPINION

Contacts between Washington and Moscow are intensifying on the “Ukrainian topic,” but the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” no longer works even officially. Donald Trump calls Putin and agrees on something, but does not answer the question “Do you consider Ukraine a full participant in this peace process?” in the affirmative.

Against this backdrop, a well-founded sense of “betrayal” is emerging in Ukrainian society from those who threatened to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.”

Komersant ukrainskyi asked political scientist Stanislav Zhelikhovsky whether such fears are justified.

“There is a lot of talk now, including this kind of talk, but I still don’t see that Trump can form any alliance or union with the Russian Federation,”

– said the expert in an exclusive commentary .

According to him, the current activity of the US administration is primarily related to finding ways to end the war. Trump’s team has realized that this cannot be achieved as quickly as it was previously thought. It’s been 24 days, not 24 hours, and the process is still in its early stages. However, this process is definitely impossible without direct contacts.

“We have to be aware that without contact with the Russian Federation, it is impossible to reach such an agreement, which means that we need to find an opportunity to communicate and monitor those points of contact that could make the ceasefire process possible. But it is also very important that Ukraine is actively involved in this process,”

– says Zhelikhovsky.

“Coordination with Ukraine is taking place, and this is good”

According to the expert, Ukraine is not left out of the process of negotiations with Russia. Right now, the US is trying to involve Russia in the negotiations, because without it, there is no way to end this hot phase of hostilities, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war in general.

“It is very good that after Trump’s phone call with Putin, a conversation took place between the new head of the White House and the Ukrainian president. There is coordination, and that’s good,”

– emphasizes Zhelikhovsky.

Washington is well aware that it was Russia that launched the aggression against Ukraine, and it is in this vein that the United States will act, the expert believes.

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Carrot and stick approach is not about alliance

Stanislav Zhelikhovsky believes that the United States is now using the carrot and stick method against Russia.

“The carrot was recently when Trump’s team announced the possible strengthening of stations against Russia, as well as against its energy sector. And other things were said that can be interpreted as a stick. Now, it seems, a carrot is being used, that is, a proposal to talk about something. Perhaps some compromises will be reached and so on,”

– says the political scientist.

According to him, statements about the unrealistic nature of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which have been heard again recently, may just turn out to be a “carrot” for Putin to start the negotiation process. In general, such tactics cannot be an indication of a possible alliance between the United States and Russia.

“It’s too early to talk about any ‘surrender of interests’. It’s just that a very complex process is underway, and it obviously requires a variety of approaches. Some of them can even be identified with certain flattery. And Donald Trump is using it,”

– the expert is convinced.

What should Ukraine expect?

Speaking about the strategic perspective, the expert draws attention to the fact that contacts between the US and Europe have also intensified. This may indicate that Trump is going to realize his intention and shift more responsibility to the European Union. The United States is going to play a completely different role than it did under President Biden, and this is what the Americans are communicating to Europeans.

“Also, the outlines of what we should expect in the future relations between Ukraine and the West are becoming clearer. For example, we cannot hope for NATO membership, but perhaps we will be provided with the security guarantees that will help Ukraine to exist as a safe and sovereign state after a possible agreement with Russia,”

– the expert notes.

As for the short term, the political scientist believes that it is too early to draw conclusions.

“Yes, the process has begun, it is quite lively, and the Kremlin is also signaling its beginning. There is even talk that Russia has begun to form a negotiating group with the United States. But it is also important to understand that there can be no truce unless Ukraine is actively involved in this process. That is why it is important for Ukrainian politicians and diplomats to work in this area,”

– stanislav Zhelikhovsky summarized.

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