Ukraine’s public debt to rise to 91% of GDP – Fitch forecast
9 December 08:59
The international rating agency Fitch predicts that Ukraine’s public debt will increase to 90.8% of GDP in 2024, up from 84.4% in 2023. This is significantly higher than the median figure of 70.9% for countries with ‘B’/’C’/’D’ ratings. Such data are presented in a recent report by the international rating agency Fitch, according to Komersant ukrainskyi.
According to the agency, the high level of debt is due to the weakening of the hryvnia and a significant budget deficit, which in 2024-2025 will amount to about 19% of GDP. Experts note that 74% of the total debt is denominated in foreign currency, although 77% of the external debt is highly concessional.
Ukraine’s external financing needs in 2025 are estimated at $38 billion, down slightly from $41 billion in 2024. Short-term uncertainty over external financing has been reduced by the expected support of the G7 in the amount of about $50 billion in loans secured by frozen Russian assets.
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Fitch has affirmed Ukraine’s rating at ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) due to the ongoing restructuring of its external commercial debt. The agency forecasts Ukraine’s economy to grow by 4% in 2024, followed by a slowdown to 2.9% in 2025 due to labor shortages and energy constraints.
Budget 2025 and public debt
As reported by , President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the law on the state budget for 2025 on November 28. According to this law, in 2025, it is planned to receive revenues of UAH 2.32 trillion, while expenditures will reach almost UAH 4 trillion. The budget deficit will amount to 19.4% of GDP.
The government has allocated a record amount of UAH 480 billion for public debt service, which exceeds social spending. This is the first time in Ukraine’s history that debt service has become the largest non-military expenditure item, surpassing the traditionally prioritized social spending of the pre-war period.
It is projected that by the end of 2025, the public debt, including publicly guaranteed debt, will increase to UAH 8.62 trillion, which will be 97% of GDP.
