Will the electricity tariff increase in 2025: experts make predictions
7 January 19:07
The cost of electricity may increase from UAH 4.32 to UAH 6.68 per 1 kWh as early as June 1, 2025. Such a forecast was made by the head of the Union of Consumers of Public Utilities, Oleh Popenko, reports
He believes that from June 1, 2025, the electricity tariff will be raised to UAH 6.68, and in two or three years – to UAH 9.
“Last year, prices of UAH 6.5-7 per kWh were mentioned, and there are plans to raise prices to this level in the near future. However, this figure was the market price or the day-ahead price in 2023, and today it is already over UAH 9, so I am sure that from June 1, the electricity tariff will be raised to UAH 6.68. In just 2-3 years, the tariff will increase to UAH 9,” Popenko said.
The head of the Union of Consumers of Public Utilities also emphasized that the market price of electricity has increased to about UAH 10 per 1 kWh. This amount consists of the price on the day-ahead market (UAH 5.95), the cost of electricity transmission (UAH 1.7) and VAT (UAH 2.35).
Why the cost of electricity may increase
“More specific calculations will be forthcoming, of course, and will be discussed by the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission and Ukrenergo, but they should be based on a clear understanding and grounds, respectively. But in general, the price increase is possible,” the expert said.
As for the forecast for 2-3 years, Kamelchuk does not rule out the possibility of raising the tariff to UAH 9 per kW.
“This is possible because European prices are similar. It will depend on how much we restore our own energy and what the structure of this energy will be. If there is some kind of expensive energy that replaces gas-fired cogeneration units or some kind of alternative energy that will require some kind of tariff reimbursement, then it is clear that the tariff will be higher,” summarized the member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy, Housing and Utilities.
What is known about the increase in electricity tariffs in Ukraine
In late September, it became known that the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission was preparing an increase in electricity tariffs. The national regulator planned to submit the relevant draft resolution for consideration on October 1.
The draft resolution states that it is necessary to increase electricity prices in order to provide additional funds for the recovery of commercial energy companies after the shelling by Russia. Another argument in favor of raising prices is to align them with those abroad, so that Ukrainian companies can profitably buy capacity to balance the European market.
The regulator proposed to set the following price caps on the day-ahead and intraday markets
- from 00:00 to 07:00 – 5600 UAH/MWh;
- from 07:00 to 17:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 6900 UAH/MWh;
- from 17:00 to 23:00 – 9000 UAH/MWh.
The minimum price ceiling was set at UAH 10/MWh.
The following tariffs are set in the balancing market:
- maximum price caps from 00:00 to 07:00 – 6600 UAH/MWh;
- from 07:00 to 17:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 8250 UAH/MWh;
- from 17:00 to 23:00 – 10,000 UAH/MWh.
In turn, the minimum price was set at UAH 0.01/MWh.
But in the fall of 2024, there was no increase in the electricity tariff.
Meanwhile, the Federation of Employers of Ukraine appealed to the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) with a request to reconsider the decision to increase the tariff for electricity transmission services by 30% in 2025.
According to the FEU, the tariff increase is economically unjustified.
The FEU emphasizes that the tariff increase will have serious consequences for the Ukrainian economy. In particular, it will lead to
- a drop in production, including in industries strategically important for the defense sector;
- a decrease in tax revenues, especially in the context of a deficit budget;
- loss of foreign exchange earnings, which worsens the country’s economic situation;
- layoffs, which will have negative socio-economic consequences;
- deterioration in the competitiveness of Ukrainian goods both on the domestic and foreign markets.
In addition, Ukrainian employers are concerned about the fact that the tariff includes the cost of repaying the debts of NPC Ukrenergo in the amount of UAH 4.2 billion, which unreasonably increases the financial pressure on industry. In our opinion, it was necessary to restructure Ukrenergo’s loans and postpone payments until after the end of martial law.
