Will the UN be able to protect Ukraine from Russia? Problems of the peacekeeping mission
24 March 16:47
ANALYSIS
French President Emmanuel Macron is considering the possibility of organizing a peacekeeping mission under the auspices of the United Nations, which could prevent a new Russian attack on Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement.
This was reported by The Telegraph.
According to the newspaper, Macron is working on this plan together with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. They are exploring alternatives to deploying European military contingents directly to Ukraine.
Macron discussed this initiative with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres at the European Council summit. France and the United Kingdom are trying to create a “coalition of the willing” among NATO and EU countries that would support the peacekeeping force. At the same time, the US President has not shown enthusiasm for supporting European forces.
“Any UN peacekeeping mission needs the approval of the Security Council. Since Russia, and possibly the United States, may be against it, the chances of success look slim,”
– the newspaper notes.
Komersant ukrainskyi has analyzed this topic in detail.
Risks and pitfalls of a peacekeeping mission
Military analyst Dmitry Snegirev said exclusively for that any peacekeeping mission under the auspices of the UN faces serious difficulties at every stage, from consultations to technical assessment and financing:
“Macron is working on a scenario that will avoid the direct deployment of European troops to Ukraine, in particular by creating a US-backed peacekeeping force.”
However, even if the initial stages are overcome, serious difficulties arise. One of the main problems is the approval of the peacekeeping mission by the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto. In addition, without security guarantees from Russia, technical assessments by UN representatives will not be possible. According to Dmitry Snegirev, even if Russia agrees to the peacekeepers, the deployment of the mission remains in question due to the lack of reliable guarantees for the security of the peacekeepers.
Andriy Sybiga, Ukraine’s foreign minister, notes that
“We will do everything that meets national interests and guarantees security for a long period.”
Ukraine is ready to take steps that may change the country’s Constitution if it will ensure national security.
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Russia’s position: categorical rejection of peacekeepers
Snegiryov reminds that the Moscow authorities have already declared their categorical disagreement with the idea of a peacekeeping mission. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that the deployment of a NATO peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine is unacceptable. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed this view, saying that “nothing good will come of it,” and Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned of possible consequences in the form of “direct armed conflict.”
Realities and difficulties of deploying a peacekeeping mission
However, even if there is support from most countries, the process remains difficult. Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, expressed doubts about the effectiveness of peacekeeping forces, noting that “nowhere in the world have peacekeepers resolved conflicts, but only frozen them.” American politicians, including former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton, also emphasize that peacekeeping missions usually do not stop aggression, but only fix it in place.
Snegiryov emphasizes that it is possible that Ukraine could apply to the UN General Assembly for a vote, but the question remains whether the country will be able to get two-thirds of the votes to support a peacekeeping mission. Funding problems are also becoming a serious obstacle, as the main costs are borne by the Security Council member states, particularly the United States.
Despite these difficulties, European partners are ready to help. In particular, according to Keir Starmer, the United Kingdom is ready to send its troops to Ukraine to ensure the implementation of the peace agreement, if necessary.
At the same time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy made his position clear, stating that a UN peacekeeping mission is not an alternative to a military contingent or security guarantees.
“The UN will not protect us from the occupation, we do not see it as an alternative to a contingent or security guarantees,”
– the President of Ukraine emphasized.
Funding and legal obstacles
Among other problems that may arise on the way of the peacekeeping mission are the issues of financing and legal aspects. According to Article 17 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the deployment of foreign military bases on the territory of the country is prohibited, so the arrival of peacekeepers requires constitutional amendments, which will be a political signal to partners and Russia.
The discussion on the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine is ongoing, and the final decision will depend on many factors, including diplomatic pressure and international legal aspects.
Thus, a UN peacekeeping mission in the event of a peace agreement with Russia remains a difficult and unlikely alternative to military contingents. Preparations for it will require approval at several stages, including obtaining the approval of the UN Security Council and ensuring the security of peacekeepers. If these problems are not resolved, the prospect of a peacekeeping mission will remain in doubt.
