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Can Russia launch 500 drones at a time – what experts say

The Russians aim to simultaneously launch about 500 drones at Ukraine. The corresponding statement was made by the deputy head of the Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky, who noted that Russia plans to significantly increase the number of attack drones. However, aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap in an exclusive commentary for Komersant ukrainskyi explained in detail how the drone industry in Russia is developing and will there be enough capacity to launch half a thousand drones at once?

Now the production of Shaheds in Russia reaches about 3 thousand units per month. For simultaneous launches of 500 drones, the enemy will have to increase this figure by 2.5 times, notes aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap

“How fast they will be able to do it is an open question. Some critical components are supplied from China, including engines and radio electronics. China tries to avoid direct deliveries of finished drones, but provides individual parts, leaving the assembly to the Russians,” explains Krivolap.

According to the expert, the Ukrainian army should now focus on strikes against UAV production centers in Russia.

“These factories are large facilities, so their destruction requires a special approach. For example, the strikes must cause detonation of warheads or cause large fires. If Ukraine has enough drone missile systems like Peklo or Palyanitsa, the chances of effectively hitting these targets will increase significantly,” – Konstantin Krivolap.

Path to mass production

According to Konstantin Krivolap, the first agreement on the supply of Shaheds was concluded between the Russians and Iranians back in 2019.

“Then General Surovikin, known as “Armagedon”, who worked in Syria and had ties with Prigozhin, came to Iran to negotiate the supply of drones and ballistic missiles. However, Iran refused to transfer the missiles, focusing on its own interests,” says Konstantin Krivolap.

Only in early 2022, Russia received the first deliveries of Shaheds, and in December 2022, a contract was signed for 6 thousand drones, which were planned to be produced until May 2025.

“The Russians were initially only supposed to manufacture the hulls, but gradually began to master other components. However, critical elements – engines, inertial guidance system and GPS – came from Iran,” notes Krivolap.

As of August 2024, the contract has been fully fulfilled, which indicates a significant growth in the production capabilities of the Russian Federation.

Geography of production

The main plants involved in the production of Geranei (the Russian version of Shahedov) are located in:

• Izhevsk (Kupol plant)
• Yelabuga,
• Leningrad region,
• Moscow region,
• Ryazan

“Izhevsk Kupol Plant has serious experience in the production of carbon fiber components and radio electronic systems. They manufactured transportation containers for S-300, S-400 missiles and even for Kalibrs,” explains Konstantin Krivolap.

In addition, former civil aviation hangars and empty shopping centers left after the departure of Western companies are used for production.

“They found a way to effectively utilize spaces previously owned by businesses. This allowed them to roll out production in several regions simultaneously,” adds Krivolap.

Increased production of attack UAVs in Russia poses a serious threat to Ukraine, as the enemy builds up capabilities for massive attacks. However, Russia’s weak point remains its production capacity, which depends on supplies of critical components from abroad. Ukraine, in turn, must focus on developing and producing its own precision strike systems to effectively respond to these challenges and strike key enemy infrastructure.