Is the April 20 ceasefire real: political scientists’ assessment
1 April 11:56
ANALYSIS
The United States is actively negotiating with Russia on a possible truce in the Russian-Ukrainian war. One of the key dates being discussed is April 20. This day coincides with Easter for all Christian denominations, and also marks exactly three months of Donald Trump’s tenure as President of the United States. Komersant ukrainskyi asked Ukrainian political experts whether there are prerequisites for a ceasefire on April 20.
“Deadlines only play into Putin’s hands”
Political analyst Oleh Lisnyi notes that setting specific dates for the truce is a dubious practice, as it allows Russia to manipulate the situation.
“I believe that setting deadlines is a negative practice, because it is always in the crosshairs of the counterparty, in our case, Putin. That is, you can say “on the 20th,” and Putin will make it happen on the 20th, but next month or next year. And this will hit Trump’s credibility,”
– explains the expert exclusively for
In his opinion, the actions of the Russian leadership indicate that the process is being deliberately delayed.
“Putin is delaying the process, and it is obvious. Trump’s desire [for a ceasefire by April 20] is also understandable, but if you analyze it, there are no prerequisites for a ceasefire or at least a short-term ceasefire to take place on that day. That is, in the sky and at sea,”
– emphasizes Lesnyi.
He also notes that the demands put forward by the Kremlin are completely unrealistic, and Putin has not yet made any concessions. On the contrary, he is putting forward more and more unacceptable conditions. This indicates that Russia is not ready for a quick truce.
“Putin is putting forward conditions that cannot be fulfilled, neither by the 20th, nor by the 30th, nor by any other date, because they are not legitimate in terms of their solution. For example, with regard to the interim government in Ukraine. The whole world reacted to this proposal. It was null and void from the very beginning. And there are a lot of such “proposals” from Russia. This suggests that Russia is not ready for a quick ceasefire,”
– summarizes Oleh Lisnyi.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
“Putin must be forced to the negotiating table”
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko is also skeptical about the possibility of reaching a ceasefire on April 20. He believes that the United States is not putting enough pressure on the Kremlin to achieve this.
“So far, the United States has not used a stick to force Putin to meet. Putin is by nature a monster who perceives a friendly attitude as weakness. And that’s why he continues to escalate and squeeze this situation to his advantage,”
– says the expert in an exclusive commentary
According to the political scientist, the situation can change only if the Kremlin’s positions are seriously damaged.
“It is obvious that if Trump really wants to stop the war, he must deliver some very humiliating blow to Putin that will force him to immediately sit down at the negotiating table,”
– the expert emphasizes.
At the same time, he also sees no reason for a real truce in the near future.
“In fact, there are no prerequisites in any case, most likely there will be some kind of hybrid situation in which the intensity of hostilities will indeed decrease, but the war will continue and Russia will not go to any documentary registration of this situation,”
– summarizes Volodymyr Tsybulko.
Summary
The date of April 20, which is being discussed as a potential truce day, seems unlikely. Experts agree that Russia is not ready to make real concessions, and without serious pressure from the United States, Putin will not compromise. So far, there is no such pressure. At the same time, there may be a certain decrease in the intensity of hostilities, but this will not mean the end of the war.
