Could Russia use “Oreshnik” on Victory Day: possible scenarios and consequences
7 May 16:08
OPINION
The Kremlin’s statements about the possible use of the Oreshnyk missile system against Ukraine on May 9 are not a show of force, but a sign of fear and information pressure. Experts believe that in this way, the Russian authorities are trying to create a pretext for a new escalation and persuade Ukraine to make concessions, hiding behind the legends of retaliatory weapons.
[comersant] spoke to political analyst Oleg Lisnyi and military expert Dmitry Snegirev to find out what could really be behind the loud statements about Kyiv’s attack in the Russian media.
Oleg Lisnyi believes that the current statements about the possible use of the so-called “Oreshnik” are nothing more than another element of psychological pressure and intimidation. According to him, these statements should be seen not as a sign of strength, but as a sign of weakness on the part of the Kremlin.
“This is an element of intimidation that does not really stop,” the expert emphasizes.
He recalls that such information injections regularly occur on the eve of symbolic dates, such as Easter or May 9, and have no real impact on the strategic situation.
There is a general line between the United States and Ukraine. It is a comprehensive ceasefire for at least 30 days. It is about peace, and it is about the first steps towards a comprehensive ceasefire,” notes Lisnyi.
However, according to him, in reality, there is no progress towards peace:
“We are trampling on point zero… We are not getting closer to peace, we are standing at the same point.
According to the political scientist, Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently trying to prevent possible risks:
“Putin, being afraid of what could happen hypothetically… mentions ‘Oreshnik’. And it appears only when something doesn’t work out for Putin. Thus, the idea of Oreshnyk symbolizes information anxiety rather than a real threat. It’s not about strength, it’s about uncertainty,” Lisnyi concludes.
A similar opinion is expressed by military expert Dmitry Snegirev. He is convinced that the Russian rhetoric about the use of extraordinary weapons is part of a political pressure campaign.
“This is an element of political informational pressure from Russia,” Snegiryov said.
At the same time, he does not rule out that such statements by the Russian side may be accompanied by planned provocations by the Russian special services.
“Against the backdrop of Ukrainian UAV attacks, I do not rule out that a provocation is possible on May 9… or a UAV strike on civilian areas.
The purpose of such an operation is to create a “casus belli”, that is, a formal pretext for a “retaliatory” strike.
They will go the route of creating a pretext for retaliatory actions,” the expert predicts.
Snegiryov also emphasizes that the real threat may not be the use of the Oreshnyk as a weapon of mass destruction, but the continuation of the tactics of terrorizing the civilian population.
I do not rule out the continuation of the tactic of striking at residential infrastructure. The goal is to force Ukraine to agree to Russian demands for territorial concessions,” he said.
According to the expert, the strikes on residential areas have a clear political goal – to discredit the Ukrainian government and undermine confidence in its decisions.
The goal is to sow panic and undermine confidence in the actions of central and local authorities. In this way, the Kremlin is trying to impose the formula “a bad peace is better than a similar scenario.”
Both Oleh Lisnyi and Dmytro Snegirev agree that the entire information operation around Oreshnyk is more of an intimidation tool than a real military scenario. The Kremlin is trying to create an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty in order to persuade Ukraine to make concessions on its own terms.
russia is preparing to strike Kyiv with “Oreshnik”: what is known
On Wednesday, May 7, Russian news sources reported on the possibility of a strike on Kyiv using the Oreshnik missile system. This was allegedly a reaction to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions on the eve of Victory Day.
In particular, the Mash Telegram channel reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had instructed the Russian Ministry of Defense to identify targets in Kyiv for a possible strike with the missile system in response to alleged “potential provocations” by Ukraine during the three-day truce declared from May 8 to 10.
According to our sources, the Ukrainian armed forces in Moscow are preparing provocations more serious than drone strikes. The response to them will be serious and will likely directly affect Kyiv. That is why the authorities are retreating from the capital of the Independent Republic. They are already taking their families and loved ones out of the country,” writes Rosmedia.
Meanwhile, State Duma deputy Andrei Kolesnik confirmed that the targets for the Oreshnik have already been determined, noting that Russia has more powerful weapons, but this missile system has already been used and has allegedly demonstrated its effectiveness.
In his turn, Major General Vladimir Popov of the Russian Armed Forces suggested that in the event of “new provocations ” by Ukraine, Russia could strike at industrial facilities in Kyiv, in particular at enterprises related to the production of missiles, military equipment and other weapons.
How Ukraine reacted to Russia’s threats to use “Oreshnik”
Member of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksiy Honcharenko urged citizens not to panic and to observe security measures, noting that reports of the possible use of the Oreshnik were an information attack.
What is known about the Oreshnik missile system
This missile system was first used in November 2024 during an attack on Dnipro.
According to Russian sources, Oreshnik is the only officially declared medium-range ballistic missile in service with the Russian Armed Forces. Its maximum range is 5,500 km, it can reach speeds of up to Mach 10 (about 12.4 thousand km/h or 3 km/s) and can carry a warhead weighing up to 1.5 tons. When equipped with a nuclear warhead, the missile can deliver 50 charges with a total yield of 50 kilotons.
The missile is capable of hitting well-protected and buried targets, with the temperature of the impactor elements reaching 4,000 degrees Celsius. The Oreshnik is launched from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that Russia has established mass production of this ballistic missile. He also says that the Oreshnik is not a modernization of old Soviet systems, but a new development of the Russian military-industrial complex.
