Does President Zelenskyy have a “backup” for the post of Commander-in-Chief? Editorial analysis of the situation
7 February 17:09
Author: Anvar Derkach
the “ongoing dismissal” of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, raises more and more questions. After all, between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statements about his possible resignation, something is surely going on in the government offices. Those who have access to insights are silent. Those who do not have access to such information are trying to analyse the available information and build versions of the real causes and consequences of the expected personnel decision. 
asked experts whether President Zelenskyy has a “backup” for the position of the Chief of Staff.
Obviously, Zaluzhnyi has not had any serious failures in the two years of the great war, and his authority in society is high. So the reason for the forthcoming dismissal is the personal relationship between the head of state and the country’s chief military officer.
Bankova Street is aware that to dismiss a respected commander-in-chief without explanation is to shoot oneself in the foot during a difficult war with an outcome that is not yet clear. So, the President’s main problem is to justify his resignation in a way that will be accepted by the army and society at large. It seems that in the absence of a convincing explanation, the President has decided to change the scope of the upcoming personnel decision. He announced a reset of the ruling team, if not the entire team, then at least a significant part of it. In this context, Zaluzhnyi’s resignation is just an episode that should not be overemphasised.
Although the United States and the European Union have distanced themselves from personnel decisions in the Ukrainian army leadership, Kyiv cannot ignore the West’s perception of the upcoming resignation of the Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief. After all, during the ten years of war with Russia, Ukraine has not been able to create its own production of military equipment and ammunition in sufficient quantities to minimise dependence on foreign supplies. And financial support from the US and EU is vital for Kyiv.
How do Western partners perceive talk of Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal and the reset of the government team? talked to experts.
Political analyst Volodymyr Horbach considers the situation in Ukraine due to Zaluzhny’s “ongoing resignation” to be a military and political crisis. In his opinion, it is already affecting the attitude of Western partners towards Ukraine.
“The perception of Zelenskyy in the West has two different levels: mass (public opinion) formed through the media and professional – among politicians, formed through personal communication and reports from special services. And often this perception is very different,”
– said Horbach.
The expert believes that sceptics will soon have their doubts confirmed. However, this will not affect the supply of the necessary ammunition to the Ukrainian army, the expert predicts.
“The issue of supplying ammunition and weapons does not directly depend on the personality of the commander-in-chief. …A radical change in supplies may occur not as a result of personnel changes, but as a response to some military defeat or disaster. When it will be too late to react,”
– said the political scientist.
Military expert Oleh Zhdanov agrees that Ukraine is facing a military and political crisis and is convinced that Zaluzhny’s resignation will have a negative impact on the perception of Ukraine in the West .
“However, not to the extent that it would affect the level of support (for Ukraine). It is important for Western partners to understand who is in charge. General Zaluzhny is a well-known and respected military leader. But who will replace him? The West may or may not regret the appointment of a new commander-in-chief. The level of aid may be affected by the results of audits of its use. So far, they are favourable for us, as no significant abuses or facts of misuse have been found,”
– said Mr Zhdanov.
However, the delay in making the announced decision to resign the Commander-in-Chief is perceived as indecision and weakness, the expert believes. This negatively affects the level of trust in the Ukrainian government and the President personally.
Zhdanov is convinced that the West will accept any appointment made by Zelenskyy and, “gritting its teeth if it doesn’t like it, will continue to help.
“After all, Ukraine’s victory is the West’s victory, and vice versa…”
– the expert noted.
Political analyst Oleh Sahakyan believes that the talk of a crisis in Ukraine due to the announced resignation of General Zaluzhnyi is an exaggeration.
“These conversations did not affect the implementation of decisions, the actions of commanders and soldiers. So there is no crisis. There is tension in society because there was no communication with it. The essence of the claims against Zaluzhnyi was not explained, so it is perceived in society as settling scores, personal ambitions or resentment,”
– says Sahakyan.
In his opinion, the resignation of the most respected and honoured general will have a greater impact on the military’s confidence in the country’s leadership than on the attitude of Western partners.
“There may be a drop in morale because of the shameful way decisions are made,” he said,
– Sahakyan believes.
The experts interviewed are unanimous: Zelenskyi has no “backup” for the post of commander-in-chief.
Oleh Zhdanov, citing his sources, claims that the Presidential Office initiated closed polls to determine the rating of commanders from brigade commander upwards in order to find a successor to Zaluzhnyi.
“The candidates we hear about: Syrskyi, Budanov – cannot replace General Zaluzhnyi,”
– Zhdanov said.
He is convinced that the image of General Syrskyi created by the Office of the President does not match his real capabilities, and intelligence officer Budanov cannot seriously claim the post of Chief of the Defence Forces. The expert did not completely rule out the candidacy of General Nayev, although he noted that he has no experience in leading large groups.
“Generals of the General Staff will leave along with Zaluzhnyi. They may be replaced by colonels,”
– believes Volodymyr Horbach.
Oleg Sahakyan is convinced that the main thing in the story of Zaluzhny’s resignation is the principle of selecting his successor.
“The president must show by his choice that he adheres to the principle of separation of duties between the military and political leadership in the country,”
– said the political scientist.
“If he chooses a person who is not respected in the army, it will mean that he is subordinating the army to himself. According to Saakyan, the perception of the new chief in the army and in society will largely depend on the information background against which the new chief appears:
“If F-16s or other long-awaited weapons appear in Ukraine, the new commander will be perceived positively. And if there is any failure, they will definitely talk about it: “This would not have happened under Zaluzhnyi.”
ANALYSIS
