Policy

Why “bad peace” with Trump is an illusion: expert explains

Amid growing international uncertainty over possible US involvement in supporting Ukraine, there is a growing opinion in society that a “bad peace” with Donald Trump is better than a war without American assistance. But is this really a realistic option? Valeriy Pekar, a public figure and lecturer at the Kyiv Mohyla Business School, made an in-depth analysis of the situation, where he set the accents and warned against illusions, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports

No one is offering us a bad peace

“I see a lot of comments that a bad peace with Trump is better than a war without US participation. I want to make this point clear,” Pekar explained.

According to him, today there is no official or even unofficial offer of peace from Trump – and there cannot be, because such an offer can only be made by the party waging war against Ukraine, i.e. Russia. And Putin, according to Pekar, has no intention of stopping his aggression in the near future.

“Peace from Putin is a manipulation”

“Putin is not offering any peace to Ukraine. And most likely, he will not offer it until the end of the fall, unless there is significant pressure on him. So far, no such pressure is expected,” the expert emphasizes.

He also notes that signals from the Kremlin about possible concessions are just information noise:

“Any signals from the Kremlin that they are ready to remove or change their demands are meaningless if they are not accompanied by a willingness to sign a peace agreement. Putin has sent contradictory signals dozens of times to confuse everyone. This is the usual noise of war.”

“Trump’s proposals are not about peace”

According to Pekar, Trump’s initiatives are not attempts to establish peace, but a way to solve his own political interests.

“Trump is offering us to agree to the US recognition of Crimea as Russian, he is offering a deal on minerals, he will offer a bunch of other things. This has nothing to do with peace,” he writes.

Without security guarantees, any agreement loses its meaning, because it can be violated the next day. Pekar adds that the U.S. administration has repeatedly stated that it has no plans to provide Ukraine with security guarantees:

“A peace offer makes no sense if there are no security guarantees that would prevent the peace from being violated the day after it is signed. We have repeated statements from representatives of the US administration that there will be no such guarantees from the US.”

“Dancing with tambourines at the expense of the victim”

According to the expert, everything that is happening now is:

• trump’s desire to show at least some results;
• and an attempt to use the difficult situation in Ukraine for his own benefit.

“A peace agreement is possible only with the one who is waging war against us. All the rest is just dancing with tambourines to benefit at the expense of the victim of aggression,” Pekar concludes.

Looking to the future: Ukraine’s tactics

He also expresses skepticism about the continuation of American aid to Ukraine:

“There is no reason to expect the continuation of American aid (and it would not have been the case if Harris had been elected, as I wrote back in September).”

According to Pekar, Ukraine’s strategy is to buy time:

“Ukraine’s policy right now is to stall for time, scooping up the aid approved by Biden and helping Europe and our friends in the US wake up faster.”

Summarizing, he notes that a real peace deal is only possible with Russia:

“I will summarize briefly: a peace agreement is possible only with the one who is waging war against us. All the rest is just dancing with tambourines to benefit at the expense of the victim of aggression.”

Source: Facebook