What to expect from the hryvnia in 2025: an economist’s forecast
17 January 16:19
In 2025, the hryvnia will continue to depreciate slowly, but it is likely to remain within the government’s macroeconomic expectations. This was stated by economic expert Andriy Novak in an exclusive commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi.
According to the economist, this trend is already laid down in the country’s main financial document.
“The forecast of a slow devaluation of the hryvnia is not a surprise – it is already included in the state budget for 2025, which provides for an average annual exchange rate of 45 hryvnia to the dollar. Compared to the exchange rate at the beginning of the year and the current level of about UAH 43, this indicates a planned moderate devaluation,”
– explains Mr. Novak.
The expert emphasizes that the main reason for the depreciation of the national currency is the war.
“Unfortunately, the intensity of hostilities is not decreasing, which leads to significant economic losses for Ukraine. The energy infrastructure is suffering the most, and businesses are being destroyed. Daily shelling provokes a new wave of internal and external migration of Ukrainians – all these are direct economic losses that inevitably affect the national currency,”
– says the economist.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
Pegging to the dollar or the euro does not matter
The National Bank said that it has definitely decided to peg the hryvnia to the euro instead of the dollar. The main factor in this transition is Ukraine’s integration with the EU, so it will simply be more convenient to focus on the euro, the NBU says. Andriy Novak believes that such a transition is a pure convention that does not affect the country’s economic life.
“In foreign economic transactions, each entity determines the currency of the contract with its foreign partner. The NBU’s conditional pegging to a particular currency is not really crucial,”
– says the economist
According to Andriy Novak, much more important factors are the hryvnia to dollar and euro exchange rates at the time of the transaction and at the time of its execution, as well as the euro-dollar exchange rate.