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What to expect from the security agreement with France?

The French Presidential Administration has announced that Emmanuel Macron will sign a security agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tomorrow. This will be the second security agreement for our country after the agreement with the UK signed on 12 January this year in Kyiv. asked the experts what to expect from this agreement and why Macron changed his mind about travelling to Kyiv to sign it.

Why France?

Political analyst Viktor Taran sees a logical pattern in the fact that France will be the next country to sign an agreement with Ukraine after Britain.

“France is one of our biggest allies and has given us a lot over the past year. Last year, it sent us light armoured vehicles, light tanks, and a Petriot analogue. That is, they are our biggest allies, and this actually resulted in the signing of these security agreements,” he said,

– he said.

The expert expects that the agreement will at least mean supplying Ukraine with a large volume of necessary weapons.

“There was even talk that France might supply us with aircraft. The French defence industry is one of the largest in the world, and Macron has recently decided that loans will be allocated under government guarantees for both the reconstruction of Ukraine and the defence industry, so that equipment can be built and transferred to Ukraine. That is, France is betting on this,”

– taran emphasises.

He reminded that France directly supports Ukraine’s accession to NATO:

“France is one of the countries that actively advocates inviting Ukraine to join NATO at the summit in July.”

Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych believes it is likely that several more security agreements will be signed before 24 February, the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

“Talks about this [bilateral security agreements – ed. We call it security guarantees, but in fact it’s security commitments, they are different things. We have been working on all these issues for about a year, and now, as I understand it, several agreements are being prepared for 24 February,”

– says the expert.

According to him, no one sees these agreements as a “substitute for NATO”.

“This is not a substitute for NATO, it is just an additional document that details the kind of assistance they will provide us, and for many years,” he adds,

– he adds.

Why France?

Viktor Taran urges not to see any implications in the fact that the agreement will be signed in France rather than Ukraine.

“There were two entry points offered by Macron: Kyiv and Odesa. And while Kyiv, according to open sources, has air defence systems that, among other things, shoot down ballistic missiles, the situation in Odesa is much worse. And since there is no equipment capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, it is more dangerous there than in Kyiv. And apparently, according to the security protocols of the French president, and every president has such protocols, his service simply did not allow him to visit. So I wouldn’t look for any other points – I think it’s a purely security story,”

– the political scientist believes.

In addition, the meeting with Macron and the signing of the agreement could have simply been combined with Zelenskyy’s trip to the Munich Security Conference, Reiterovich adds.

“They probably decided that since Zelenskyy will be attending the Munich conference in Germany, it would be easier for him to visit Macron and sign the agreement there… We would, of course, like to do it in Kyiv, it’s logical. Sunak, I recall, signed the agreement in Kyiv. But perhaps it was because of the conference that they decided to combine and do everything on the spot,”

– reitrovych added.

“A festival of security agreements”

So it is likely that, especially against the backdrop of disappointing news from the US Congress, we will soon see a real “Festival of Security Agreements”, when Western countries will guarantee our security under bilateral agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum.

The UK was the first to sign such an agreement with Ukraine. France is next in line. An agreement with Canada may be the next. In addition, Ukraine is negotiating similar agreements with the United States, Germany, Poland, and Italy.

In particular, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, said that two rounds of talks between Ukraine and the US have already taken place on the content and content of the relevant agreement with the US government.

Ukraine is desperately trying to gain the support of the world. In particular, the following 5 points of the Ukrainian Formula for Peace were presented at this year’s Davos Economic Forum.

Author: Iryna Shevchenko.