Due to Trump’s tariffs, store shelves in the US may be empty very soon
8 May 10:25
The destructive effects of Trump’s trade policy may be felt by the United States much sooner than it seems – in the next few months. This is stated in a recently published Bloomberg article by Tracy Elloway and Joe Weisenthal, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
The trade balance is negative
According to the article, the latest data on the US trade balance shows that the trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March 2025. This was largely driven by a jump in imports, which rose by almost $18 billion compared to February and about 27% compared to the same period last year. The article explains that the increase in imports was expected given the numerous reports of companies stockpiling inventories ahead of the new tariffs.
However, as the article explains, the composition of imports was quite unexpected. The majority of the growth is in pharmaceuticals, not household appliances or toys, as one might expect. According to Bloomberg, in March, imports of pharmaceuticals rose 71% to a record $50.4 billion, effectively accounting for the entire increase in consumer goods imports. In other words, America bought a lot of drugs last month, but did not see the same stockpiling of electronics, textiles, or athletic shoes.
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The article says that this data is worrisome because it suggests that retailers have not yet accumulated enough inventory to help them survive the current trade standoff. Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC, said:
“The narrative that retailers have stockpiled does not seem to be borne out, at least according to the March data.”
Other countries will take advantage of the situation
The authors of the article emphasize that this is bad news for US retailers, especially given the already existing concerns about empty shelves and a shrinking range of products for customers. But it also raises concerns about the Trump administration’s prospects for reaching deals with major trading partners. After all, why agree to anything with the US now when you can wait a few weeks or a couple of months until the US really feels the pain of trade restrictions?
As Paul Donovan of UBS notes,
“it is in the interest of most of the US trading partners to wait until the economic damage from tariffs becomes more apparent, thereby strengthening their negotiating position.”
The article notes that it is in this context that the headlines about the upcoming talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng should be viewed. This is the beginning of trade talks – “talk before talks” or what some describe as “breaking the ice.”
Donald Trump has so far insisted that he has the upper hand when it comes to making trade deals, telling reporters the day before:
“We could sign 25 deals right now… if we wanted to. We don’t need to sign deals. They need to sign agreements with us.”
However, as the article points out, with no signs of widespread inventory buildup in the U.S., judging by official import data and unofficial indicators such as cardboard boxes, time may not actually be on America’s side. If U.S. companies have not stockpiled enough, the impact of tariffs could hit much harder – and faster – than many Americans (and the Trump administration) perhaps expect.
