Cherries will be in short supply in 2025: prices will soar
20 May 13:36
In 2025, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries are expected to face a significant shortage of cherries and cherries due to spring frosts, which will lead to a sharp rise in prices. EastFruit analysts have analyzed the impact of weather conditions on the harvest of these berries in the region, including Turkey, the largest exporter of cherries, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
The impact of frost on the harvest
The April 2025 frosts caused serious damage to orchards in Eastern Europe and Turkey. Although crop losses vary by region, preliminary estimates indicate a significant reduction in cherry and sweet cherry production. In addition, the EU countries continue to reduce the area under these crops due to frequent frost losses, which complicates the situation.
“Another factor to consider when assessing the prospects for cherry and sweet cherry prices in 2025 is the ongoing reduction of the area under these crops in the EU countries. As the risks of growing sweet cherries are constantly growing, due to frequent crop losses from frost, old plantations are gradually being uprooted and not replaced by new ones,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at FAO’s investment department.
Ukraine: losses of up to 55% of the crop
In April 2025, the third wave of spring frosts in Ukraine hit orchards. The southern and central regions, where sweet cherry production is concentrated, suffered the most.
According to preliminary estimates:
- Losses of sweet cherries – 45-55%,
- Cherry losses – 35-50% (especially in the northern regions).
It should be noted that Ukraine is already largely dependent on imports of sweet cherries after the Russian aggressors occupied the traditional regions of growing these fruits and actually destroyed most of the plantations. Therefore, this year’s prices for sweet cherries in Ukraine will be even higher than usual.
Poland: losses of sweet cherries up to 80%
The spring frosts in late April and early May damaged orchards in Poland. Losses:
- Sweet cherries – up to 80% in some regions,
- Cherries – on average 50-55%.
Although Poland is not a major exporter of fresh cherries, frozen cherries are becoming increasingly popular in world trade.
Turkey: minus 50-70% of sweet cherries
Turkey, the main exporter of sweet cherries to Eastern Europe, has also suffered. From April 10 to 12, temperatures in some regions dropped to -15°C.
The regions of Salihli, Isparta and Afyonkarahisar suffered the greatest losses. Expected:
- Reduction of the harvest by 50-70%,
- Cherry prices are expected to rise by at least 75%.
This automatically means a similar price increase for the Ukrainian market.
Hungary: up to 90% of losses
In Hungary, frosts destroyed up to 90% of stone fruits. The eastern regions of the country, which specialize in growing cherries and sweet cherries, were affected. Local processors are already looking for alternative sources of supply, particularly in Uzbekistan.
Romania:up to 80% of losses
In the regions of Dymbovita, Brasov and Vilcea, temperatures dropped to -8°C from April 6 to 11. As a result:
- The harvest of cherries and cherries decreased by 70-80%.
- The country will be forced to import products even in the season of its own harvest.
Moldova: losses of up to 100% in the regions
In Moldova, the first and second waves of frosts damaged the cherry and sweet cherry crops.
Estimates:
- Average losses are 30-40%,
- In some regions – up to 100% (especially in the north, in Soroca).
Will Uzbekistan save the situation?
Part of the cherry harvest from Uzbekistan could be reoriented to Eastern European markets. But there are three serious limitations:
- Long distances and complicated logistics due to the war in Ukraine.
- Russia is a priority market because of easier delivery and higher prices.
- Inconsistency of the harvest season – Uzbek cherries disappear from the market before the main demand for them is formed in Europe.
Conclusion: sweet cherries in 2025 are scarce and expensive
The harvest of sweet cherries and cherries in 2025 will be significantly lower than usual in most Eastern European countries.
This means one thing – sweet cherries will become a delicacy, prices will increase by 1.5-2 times, and a surge in demand and shortage is expected for frozen cherries.
