Part of Ukraine may be left without gas in winter: experts voice alarming forecasts
8 May 16:55
Ukraine may face serious gas supply problems in the 2025-2026 heating season if Russia does not stop its attacks on gas infrastructure in the summer. This is the warning of a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services and MP Serhiy Nagornyak, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to him, since the end of 2024, Russia has changed its tactics, focusing its attacks on gas production and gas treatment facilities. This led to significant damage, the restoration of which can take from 6 to 36 months and require significant financial resources. At the same time, the enemy deliberately attacks facilities that are difficult to restore quickly, such as compressor stations and gas processing plants.
Nagornyak emphasizes that even the presence of gas in underground storage facilities does not guarantee uninterrupted supply, as the gas infrastructure is mostly located on the surface and is vulnerable to missile attacks.
As of now, we expect a potential gas shortage of 4.6 to 5 billion cubic meters for next winter. Even if we now gradually restore our gas infrastructure, our own gas production has fallen by more than half,” says Nagornyak.
He calls on the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) to develop a clear action plan in case of large-scale damage to the gas distribution system in winter.
According to him, it is not only a matter of technical support, but also the need to adopt emergency regional scenarios, including alternative heat supply.
Experts also warn of a possible gas shortage of 4-5 billion cubic meters in 2025, which could lead to an increase in imported gas prices to $500-600 per 1000 cubic meters. This creates additional financial pressure on the country’s energy system and local budgets.
In response to these challenges, it is proposed to create a communal gas reserve for cities with a population of more than 100 thousand people. This will allow purchasing gas in the summer at lower prices and using it in the winter, which will help stabilize the market and avoid a sharp increase in tariffs for the population.
The possibility of attracting international technical assistance to strengthen the protection of energy infrastructure is also being discussed. This includes the purchase of modern air defense systems, as well as the temporary relocation of critical nodes to safer regions of the country. In addition, the MPs call on the government to intensify negotiations with the EU to increase the guaranteed volumes of reverse gas supplies and credit lines for emergency purchases.
Sergiy Nagornyak emphasizes that if Russia does not stop its attacks in the summer, there is a real risk that part of Ukraine will be left without gas in the winter. It is necessary to take measures now to protect the infrastructure, increase domestic production and create strategic reserves.
How the 2024/2025 heating season went for Ukraine
The 2024/2025 heating season in Ukraine was stable despite the difficult energy situation and threats from Russia. According to the Ministry of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development, on average, more than 98% of residential buildings, social infrastructure facilities and critical institutions received heat.
In many regions, including Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts, as well as Lviv, Stryi, and Ternopil, the heating season ended early due to favorable weather conditions. In Dnipro, heating was probably cut off in late March.
Thanks to the coordinated work of power engineers, utilities and local authorities, large-scale accidents and long-lasting heat outages were avoided. This was made possible by timely preparations for the heating season, including repair and modernization of heating networks, as well as the accumulation of sufficient energy reserves.
How we survived the winter. Ukrenergo has just over 100 distribution substations across the country. As of December 2024, the construction of one second-level protection structure for high-capacity transformers was completed at 70 substations. Also, this winter was quite warm and the level of consumption was not so critical. This also helped us,” explains Serhiy Nagornyak, a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy, Housing and Utilities.
Read also: Why Ukraine sharply increased gas imports in 2025: expert explanation
Forecasts and prospects for the 2025/2026 heating season in Ukraine
The 2025/2026 heating season in Ukraine may become one of the most difficult in the years of full-scale war. Russian attacks on energy infrastructure continue, especially on gas production and distribution facilities. According to the Parliamentary Committee on Energy, it will take 6 to 36 months to restore the damaged units.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicts a gas shortage of up to 5 billion cubic meters. It will require at least $2.9 billion to cover it. Ukraine is negotiating with international partners to provide credit lines and guaranteed supplies.
Our goal is to accumulate at least 14 billion cubic meters by the beginning of the heating season. This will allow us to feel more confident even in the face of constant attacks,” Naftogaz said.
Meanwhile, the government is considering the possibility of creating regional gas reserves and switching to alternative energy sources if necessary.
“We ask local authorities to actively engage in the development of action plans in case of outages. This applies to schools, hospitals, and residential buildings,” the Ministry of Energy emphasizes.
“Energy experts are already in solidarity that the key factors for the upcoming season will be infrastructure protection, supply diversification and crisis preparedness. Successful preparation depends on the speed of decisions, external support and coordination between central and local authorities.
