A repeat military coup in the Russian Federation requires a leader on the ground.One of them is currently in Ukraine, but is gaining capacity, according to the head of intelligence , Kirill Budanov. Komersant ukrainskyi
The name that immediately comes to mind is Ilya Ponomarev. He is a former member of the Russian State Duma who is a vocal opponent of the Putin regime, holds Ukrainian citizenship and speaks Ukrainian. Until recently, he was the coordinator of the Legion’s political centre, Freedom of Russia.
“I don’t know who Budanov was referring to, but I don’t think the queue is very long. We need to work hard on a common goal. We need unity between military units, the guerrilla movement, volunteers and politicians. And the problem is that there is no such unity now.”
Ilya Ponomarev
Instead, Ponomarev is more concerned about the fact that Russian oppositionists do not have a unified strategy for the future of Russia and are constantly arguing among themselves.
“Kirill Alekseevich (Budanov – ed.) did not name the name of the alleged leader, and he did the right thing, because it would have harmed the cause. Any real revolutionary force that can change anything in Russia needs cooperation and connections at all levels. At the moment, such proposals would be counterproductive.”
Ilya Ponomarev
At the initial stage of preparations for the overthrow of the Putin regime, the oppositionist advises to create a revolutionary headquarters in the premises of the former Russian embassy in Ukraine.
Overthrowing the Putin regime through the elites
The overthrow of Putin’s regime is based on communication with a certain circle of people inside Russia, says Ilya Ponomarev. However, this is also not enough.
“In order for the process to be more widespread, we need to split the elites. And this can be achieved with the right sanctions policy, a guerrilla movement that will put pressure and create danger for certain individuals. However, I feel an atmosphere of waiting for something to happen by itself.”
Ilya Ponomarev
The topic of overthrowing the Putin regime with the help of the elites has been raised more than once by Russian oppositionist and former State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov. In an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrainsky
“Any rebellion, of course, needs a leader. But the demonstrative murder of Prigozhin was organised to prevent such leaders from appearing in Russia. This can only happen as a result of a split in the elites, when the process is led by someone who has broken away from the system. So far, there are no prerequisites for this.”
Dmitry Gudkov
The leader should be sought within Russia
Leonid Gozman, a prominent Russian politician and oppositionist who was imprisoned twice in Russia for identifying the USSR with Nazi Germany and Stalin with Hitler, does not believe in Budanov’s plan. He says that the person who could lead something like Prigozhin’s rebellion should be in Russia right now.
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“A military coup (and this option cannot be ruled out) can only be led by a person who is inside the Russian armed forces and holds a sufficiently high position. It could be one of the combat commanders, most likely a general. Someone who has a lot of soldiers under his command, among whom he is popular.”
Leonid Gozman
The oppositionist is convinced that the leader of the rebellion must be respected, just as the Wagnerians respected Prigozhin. General Popov, who has now been arrested, had a chance to become such a leader.
“It seems extremely unlikely to me that someone from abroad could lead an armed coup. Because the strength of such a person is in the trust of those armed people who will follow him”
Leonid Gozman
As for the Legion of Freedom of Russia or the RDC, oppositionist Gozman doubts that they will have enough resources. Most likely not, Gozman concludes.
Is a military coup in Russia possible in the near future?
After Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Russian army and security forces, such as the FSB, the Interior Ministry and the National Guard, became even more controlled by the state apparatus. Putin has considerable control over the political system and the support of the elites. The Russian economy, although “overheating”, is still afloat. Propaganda and control over the media help maintain the image of a stable government among the general population, which reduces the likelihood of mass protests or support for a coup.
Although the likelihood of such a scenario in Russia seems low, a military coup is theoretically possible in any country. Moreover, as Prigozhin’s experience has shown, this event can be quite unexpected, and the Kremlin’s so-called elite will need only a few hours to board private jets and leave Moscow. That is, if these planes are allowed to leave Russia and other countries are allowed to enter their airspace.
Author: Anastasia Fedor