War

Britain convenes allies to discuss peace in Ukraine. Will Europe “pay” for peacekeepers for Kyiv?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a virtual meeting with the leaders of NATO and the Commonwealth countries that are ready to provide military forces for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. This was reported by Komersant ukrainskyi with reference to Bloomberg.

The meeting is scheduled for March 15, 2025.

What is planned to be discussed at the meeting?

• studying the military commitments of different countries to support peacekeeping efforts;
• assessment of the legal and operational framework for multinational peacekeeping forces;
• consideration of security risks for peacekeepers deployed to Ukraine;
• determining the role of U.S. support in the formation of the peacekeeping mission.

The Starmer administration believes that international forces can serve as a deterrent to further aggression and contribute to stabilization in Ukraine if a formal ceasefire agreement is reached. However, as political scientists and military experts point out, the practical implementation of such a mission remains highly dependent on the willingness of international partners to allocate resources.

It should be recalled that on the eve of this initiative, the United Kingdom was actively working with its European and global allies to secure commitments to the peacekeeping mission.

Thus, earlier this month, Keir Starmer organized a major European summit in London, which was attended by EU leaders, NATO representatives, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The summit was dedicated to strengthening European defense coordination and increasing military and economic support for Ukraine.

Summit results:

• european countries promised to increase defense spending in response to current security threats;
• discussions focused on how to structure a European-led peacekeeping force, separate from NATO’s direct involvement;
• the need for a unified transatlantic approach was emphasized and there were calls for US participation.

Several European governments expressed preliminary support for the peacekeeping initiative, but also emphasized that U.S. participation would be crucial to its success.

The role of the United States in peacekeeping discussions

According to analysts, the success of the proposed coalition largely depends on US support, both militarily and politically. The UK government is working closely with Washington to ensure coherence of positions on this issue.

European leaders are hesitant to make final commitments without a clear indication of U.S. involvement, as U.S. military support remains critical to any successful operation of this magnitude.

Challenges and geopolitical risks

Although the idea of deploying an international peacekeeping force is gaining momentum, several significant challenges remain:

1. Uncertainty about the ceasefire agreement. Peacekeeping forces can only be deployed if a ceasefire agreement is reached, which is currently uncertain. And Russia has not shown any willingness to negotiate terms that would include international peacekeepers.
2. Security and risks for troops. The deployment of peacekeepers in areas of active or unstable conflict poses serious security risks. If peacekeepers are targeted, it could escalate tensions and draw international forces deeper into the conflict.
3. Disagreements among Allies. Some EU countries are hesitant to provide military personnel, preferring financial or logistical support. NATO’s structure makes direct involvement difficult, as some Allies prefer the mission to remain under EU or UN leadership.

Economic and strategic feasibility

In addition to the military risks, Keir Starmer’s proposal has economic implications for the UK and its allies. Among them:

Budgetary constraints. The UK and EU countries have to allocate significant funds to support peacekeeping operations. A formal commitment could lead to increased defense spending across Europe.

Potential impact on energy markets. Successful peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine could contribute to greater stability in Eastern Europe, potentially affecting global energy prices and trade relations with Russia.

Growth of the defense industry. Increased security cooperation could lead to an increase in demand for military equipment and technology, which would benefit defense contractors in the UK and the EU.

How many peacekeepers are needed to stabilize Ukraine?

Up to 200,000 peacekeepers are needed to stabilize the demarcation line in Ukraine. This figure was voiced by Maria Zolkina, a political expert at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

“There is no such number of armed forces in Europe that would allow sending the 200 thousand that Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned to Ukraine. Given the experience of international conflict resolution, in order for a demarcation line as long as in Ukraine to be stable, the initial figure of 200 thousand, which frightened European partners, is close to reality,” Zolkina said.

The expert pointed out that despite the fact that after 2014 Ukraine did not officially ask for or promote the idea of peacekeepers in Donbas, experts still developed such a scenario. At that time, it was said that 30,000 to 40,000 peacekeepers were needed for the then existing demarcation line, which was several times smaller than the one we see now.

According to Zolkina, the European countries with the largest armies could hypothetically send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. These are Germany, France and Poland. This is especially true of official Warsaw, which has rapidly “built up” its army over the past few years and increased the number of troops from 100,000 to more than two hundred. Moreover, Poland plans not to stop there in the foreseeable future.

“It is Poland that will face a more than serious choice: how to send a significant part of its army on an international mission to Ukraine, if NATO is not likely to stand up for Polish territory in the event of aggression (against official Warsaw – ed.),” Zolkina emphasized.

Thus, she emphasized that even countries that have the necessary resources will not be ready to make a political decision and separate 30 or 50 thousand troops to send to Ukraine.

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