The expansion of the BRICS may be discussed during the summit in Kazan on 22-24 October. According to Bloomberg, Turkey has applied to join the group of countries. It is also known that Azerbaijan has officially applied to join the BRICS. Komersant ukrainskyi
analysed what the expansion of BRICS will mean for Ukraine and what does the multipolarity of the world mean in the 21st century?
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in Political Science, international expert, in an exclusive commentary assures that the expansion of the BRICS is inevitable. He says that in addition to the five countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the UAE, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia have already joined.
“There is a tendency that the world is becoming more polarised and this is a challenge for the international community. If in the future these countries that have tense relations with the Western world, or that have not yet decided what place to take in this arena, other countries, the BRICS heavyweights, will pull others into this organisation,”
– says the expert.
Is the BRICS expansion a threat?
It is worth noting that the BRICS is a group of countries that exceeds one-third of the world’s GDP, and the population of the BRICS countries accounts for 45% of the world’s population, says Zhelikhovsky.
“Almost half of the population and 45% of oil reserves belong to the BRICS countries. And thus they will be able to control many regions of the earth, because the Asian region is controlled by India and China, Latin America – by Brazil, which is a heavyweight.”
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky
The BRICS members want to surround the Western world with a ring of states that oppose the Western model. Their goal is to polarise the world, adds Zhelikhovsky.
In particular, the Chinese Foreign Minister’s statement about an equal, orderly, multipolar world and comprehensive economic globalisation is proof of this. Putin promoted similar rhetoric in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference. At that time, the dictator spoke out against a unipolar world, against the hegemony of the United States and civilised countries, which act as the only pole. According to Zhelikhovsky, this trend continues now, and the reason is that the Russian Federation continues to exist as a state that has not yet lost the war against Ukraine.
Ukraine’s role in the new world order
One of the lines of division of the world order runs through the Russian-Ukrainian border, Zhelikhovsky is sure. And the likely tactical victories of Russia on the battlefield, the freezing of the conflict and the consolidation of the occupied territories by Russia will only strengthen this split.
“I do not see multipolarity, as stated in China, but a bipolar model, which was during the Cold War. However, now the second pole will be more diverse. It will be a galaxy of different states that are united by rejection or confrontation with the West. A common enemy or political opponent forces them to unite.”
Stanisław Żelichowski
The expert believes that Putin is most interested in such a scenario, as he will have allies in confronting the civilised world. After all, the main violin is played by countries that do not have a democratic system.
“In 2022, the world was holding its breath, following the events in Ukraine, there were many condemnations of Russia’s actions and there were assumptions that Russia would lose this war because it would not be able to survive sanctions and isolation. Now we see that Russia can find alternative ways to compensate for the loss of sanctions pressure and enlist the support of new players.”
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky
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BRICS is about politics and manipulation
At one time, Argentina was supposed to join the BRICS, recalls international expert Zhelikhovsky. However, due to pro-American views, this decision was postponed at the last minute.
Today, Ankara is one step away from joining BRICS.
According to Bloomberg sources, Turkey is disappointed with the lack of progress in joining the EU and is seeking to establish ties outside the West, saying that the geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards developing countries.
Olga Romanova, director of the Sitting Russia Foundation, sees only blackmail on Turkey’s part in this context
“Erdogan is clearly tired of waiting for EU membership and has decided to blackmail Europe with his growing friendship with Putin. Yes, the BRICS will expand and he will be accepted. However, it is a dead and meaningless organisation. You can join the CIS in this way.”
Olga Romanova
Zhelikhovsky shares the same opinion. He says that Ankara wants to have more preferences in the context of cooperation, trade, and movement. And Turkey is moving towards this policy while blackmailing the EU.
Ukraine may lose Turkey after joining BRICS
Moreover, Turkey’s accession to BRICS will have negative consequences for Ukraine. Zhelikhovsky is confident that it will be harder to negotiate a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine, as the BRICS countries may take Russia’s position.
“If Ankara joins the BRICS and does everything in unison with Moscow, we will lose this country as a possible platform for negotiations, as a mediator who can contribute to a peaceful settlement.”
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky
However, so far, the media have only been talking about Turkey’s intentions. Azerbaijan has officially applied to join the BRICS. And although experts are already talking about the country’s rapprochement with Russia, Azerbaijani political scientists do not see this as a confrontation with the West. Ramiz Yunus, the former chief of staff of the Azerbaijani government, suggests looking at geography and rejecting the possibility of any confrontation.
“It’s ridiculous to talk about alternatives to the West in terms of institutionalisation. Look at Brazil’s relations with the US and Europe. They are excellent, particularly in terms of trade. The West and the BRICS countries cooperate for large sums of money, so there is no alternative to be discussed.”
Ramiz Yunus
Yes, the search for new centres of power has intensified, says Ramiz Yunus. Especially after the collapse of the USSR, when the unipolar world had not yet been formalised.
“And after a series of wars unleashed by Putin, there was an understanding that the unipolar world no longer exists, and new rules need to be created, geotectonic processes began, in which everyone was involved. That’s why Turkey regularly knocks on the door of the EU. This is not a problem of the President of Turkey, it is a problem of a Muslim country in the centre of Europe.”
Ramiz Yunus
BRICS is not an alternative to the West, it is a diverse group of countries that want to create a multipolar world. And Azerbaijan’s application is a geopolitical process, as the country also cooperates with the EU, says Ramiz Yunus, former chief of staff of the Azerbaijani government.
Let me remind you that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy failed to win over a number of key southern countries during the summit in Switzerland. India, Indonesia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Brazil were among the countries that did not sign the final statement. The latter sent only an observer. China avoided participating in the meeting altogether.
Thus, as the Western media wrote, the BRICS countries “crossed themselves out” of the peace summit in Switzerland.
Author: Anastasia Fedor