The Iranian scenario in action: how Russia copies the war of attrition in cities
In the early morning hours of April 18, Russians struck a residential area of Kharkiv with an air-launched ballistic missile, killing 1 person and wounding 80. The target was a civilian production facility, the Tubular Plant, and the houses around it.
Before that, on April 16, there was Kherson and a group strike by the KAB on the center – the ice sports palace and nearby shops were hit, and Russian artillery was firing on the rescuers who arrived. 2 killed and 9 wounded.
april 13, Sumy – two Iskanders were launched in pairs at the congress center of Sumy University, essentially the center of the city, 35 killed, 129 injured.
Dnipro April 10 – Biosphere plant, household chemicals production, warehouses and company management. “Freken Bock” products, which are as far from defense as possible.
Plus two more waves of strikes – UAVs and rockets, 3 killed, 20 wounded.
Magellan restaurant in Kryvyi Rih on April 4 – Iskander strike with an airborne detonator, they could have put the detonator on the strike, but wanted as many civilian casualties as possible. 20 dead, 72 wounded.
Ballistic missile attacks became more frequent – the “war of cities”. This was largely due to the fact that the first North Korean copies of Iskanders could fly a kilometer and a half (!) from the target.
But now the Russians have modernized them and we are talking about a hundred meters, so that during the mid-air detonation it is possible to fill the target with shrapnel and fragments of the monobloc part – not even a cassette filling is necessary.
The term “urban warfare” first appeared during the Iran-Iraq war in February 1984, when Saddam Hussein massively used Soviet Elbrus missiles to strike Iranian city centers such as Difful, Isfahan, and Endimeshq.
The dictator explained his logic as follows:
“Wherever a missile hits in a big city, it will cause damage, and it is only by a lucky break that an air base or military base can be hit accurately.”
Since there could not be many export Elbrus in Iraq, they decided to save money by working in historical centers.
The first wave was in city centers, then efforts were shifted to oil pumping stations, refineries, and steel mills.
The Iranians, with the help of their Chinese comrades, built their own Ohab missiles for foreign currency and bought Hwasongs from North Korea, the first versions that flew every other day.
It was then that Pyongyang first tested its missile technology.
There were several UN-mediated ceasefires that were disrupted by new regular strikes. During a series of strikes on Tehran, 12% of its population fled the Iranian capital – there were days when 12 missiles arrived per day.
The goal of the Russian Federation today is the same terror. As a background for negotiations with the United States.
If they succeed in achieving a ceasefire with the loss of territory, it will put pressure on morale, and it is good that it is over, plus any attempts by the reconquista will be criticized within society to avoid the horrors of war.
If it fails, it will be pressure on morality, because in one form or another, people are tired of the war and want this horror to end. Despite all the irrationality of Trump’s promises to end everything in 48 hours after the election.
The defense forces are responding. on April 15-16-17, dozens of long-range drones were launched at the village of Shuya to polish the location of the 448th Missile Brigade, which had struck Sumy.
Boxes for equipment, an ammunition depot, hangars for routine maintenance, fuel and lubricant depots were destroyed, and the headquarters and barracks were damaged.
There were killed and wounded, secondary detonations of ammunition – unfortunately, there were no explosions characteristic of head detonations.
Today, the Russian Federation has reached the degree of air defense depletion we need, and if slow-moving drones are coming, they are coming for the location of the missile brigade, the largest producer of military chemicals in Chapayevsk, or the only fiber optic plant in Saransk.
But it is difficult to work on dispersed troops, it is true.
In addition, the supply of copies of Iskanders from North Korea will continue – we are talking about at least 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles that are already in Moscow or on the way. Therefore, ballistic missile strikes will continue.
Until the end of the war, we will not be able to deploy a missile defense group capable of intercepting ballistic missiles over all major cities, so there will be no dispersal, no leaving homes near industrial centers, no responding to alarms, no avoiding crowded places, no mass events, nothing else.
Before that, no morale blows – neither the Fau bombing of London during World War II, nor the bombing of the English capital by airships before World War I, nor the launch of over a hundred ballistic missiles at Tehran – made the country fall or withdraw from the war and surrender.
This will not happen to us either. Eternal memory to all those who died as a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Take care of yourselves.
