Does it make sense to continue peace talks

the 30-hour ceasefire confirmed two things that had been widely discussed earlier. First, an immediate end to the war is possible. And this issue is entirely in the hands of one person. Putin’s statement on the air was enough, and the Ukrainian government immediately responded.

Obviously, the war does not end overnight. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers in combat conditions cannot just stop in a second. War has inertia: even if a ceasefire is ever reached, it will take days or even weeks for the fighting to stop completely. But the main thing is that the world has seen that it is real. And that there is only one person who does not want it.

Second, it was confirmed that Putin cares about the process of negotiations. Not the result, but the very fact of their existence. As soon as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the talks, Putin started talking about a truce.

His demands are not military, but political. “Denazification,” “demilitarization,” and a “new security architecture” cannot be achieved by missiles or the seizure of square kilometers. They can only be imposed through pressure at the negotiating table. That is why Putin does not want the negotiation process to disappear, as was confirmed this weekend.

At the same time, the internal contradictions in the US administration give the Russian dictator hope that at some point the Americans will sit down and discuss the very topics that Putin started this war with.

Disagreements over Ukraine in the Trump team are becoming more and more noticeable. While Vitkoff retells the Kremlin’s narrative about “territories where Russians live,” Marco Rubio emphasizes: “Ukraine is a sovereign nation that has the right to determine which security agreements to sign and with whom. In other words, Russia should not be concerned about who will act as guarantors of Ukraine’s security and what obligations they will assume. Of course, this completely excludes any talk of “demilitarization.”

This situation creates uncertainty for all parties: for Ukrainians and Europeans who want a fair end to the war, and for Putin, who understands that it is either to reach an agreement now or never to reach one.

To be honest, the likelihood that Putin will end the war right now looks very small. But if this does not happen, the United States will most likely withdraw from the negotiations. And then there will be complete uncertainty. The president will lose his personal interest in the process, as was the case during Donald Trump’s previous term, when Ukraine’s issues were not resolved by him personally, but by his advisors and the State Department.

This – Putin’s fear of losing his last chance to talk to the Americans – is perhaps the only reason why the talks still have any prospects.

Source: Facebook

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