Business forecasts for 2025: do Ukrainian entrepreneurs see the end of the war?
25 February 08:42
Ukrainian businesses continue to operate in the war, adapting to new challenges and the unstable economic situation. CEOs are assessing the prospects for the end of hostilities and preparing for a possible prolongation of the war. This is evidenced by the results of a new wave of the Business in Time of War survey conducted by the European Business Association among its member companies, Komersant ukrainskyi reports
Despite the difficult economic and security situation, the majority of EBA member companies will continue to operate in Ukraine, regardless of the duration of hostilities. According to a new survey, 77% of companies announced their intention to stay in the Ukrainian market, 19% have not yet decided, and only 4% admit that they may leave in the event of a protracted war.
Vision of the prospects for ending the war in 2025
Businesses are divided on the outlook for the end of hostilities.
Only 32% of respondents believe that the war will end in 2025, 25% do not share this optimism, and 43% cannot answer this question.
Business operations in the war
At the beginning of 2025, 75% of companies are fully operational, while 24% have certain restrictions on their activities, and 1% do not operate at all.
The main challenges for business remain:
- lack of skilled workers due to mobilization (75%),
- restrictions on the geography of operations (55%)
- the need to suspend operations during air alerts (41%).
At the same time, the share of companies operating without restrictions has increased compared to the previous survey. Six months ago, 64% of companies were fully operational, and 36% were operating with restrictions.
Optimistic mood in business
Over the past six months, the number of managers who positively assess the state of their business has increased – 40% of them compared to 27% in the previous wave of the survey. At the same time, 46% assess the situation as satisfactory, and 14% – negatively.
Forecasts for business dynamics have also become more optimistic. While six months ago 56% expected the situation to worsen, this share has now dropped to 29%. At the same time, the number of companies predicting improvement has doubled from 16% to 32%. Another 39% do not expect any significant changes.
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Factors that have the greatest negative impact on business
The biggest problems faced by entrepreneurs are
- lack of qualified personnel due to mobilization (75%),
- war and occupation of territories (63%),
- economic instability (54%).
In the previous wave of the survey, the top 3 challenges included attacks on energy infrastructure, but now this factor has fallen to fourth place.
Financial stability of companies
Despite the challenging environment, companies are increasing their financial reserves.
Currently, 72% of respondents have reserves that will last for at least a year (compared to 53% six months ago).
Another 22% of companies have reserves for six months, 5% – for several months, and 1% said they have no reserves at all.
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Business losses from the war
Business losses remain significant.
As of the beginning of 2025, for 25% of the surveyed companies, they amounted to up to $1 million. 24% reported losses in the range of $1-10 million, and 16% reported losses of more than $10 million.
Only 11% of the EBA surveyed companies did not incur any losses, and 24% found it difficult to estimate them.
Supporting the Armed Forces and mobilizing employees
Businesses continue to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 72% of companies help their employees fighting in the Armed Forces, 56% provide financial assistance, and 35% support the army with products. In addition, 23% of companies contribute to the restoration of communities and regions.
85% of companies have employees who have been mobilized to the Armed Forces. The share of companies with 10-20% of their staff mobilized increased from 28% to 36%. In 8% of companies, this figure exceeds 20-30%.
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About half, namely 48% of companies report that there are critical specialists among those mobilized or volunteered.
Business relocation
Only 9% of companies have relocated their offices or production facilities due to the war, of which 7% moved assets within Ukraine and 2% moved them abroad.
86% have not relocated and do not plan to, while 5% have not relocated but are currently considering it.
Business needs
Among the key needs that are currently most relevant to business
- improving the conditions for booking employees,
- easing currency restrictions,
- a moratorium on inspections,
- covering military risks
In general, the survey results demonstrate the resilience of Ukrainian business, the growing level of optimism and adaptation to new realities, which helps to preserve the country’s economic potential in times of war.
