Belarusians are concentrating troops near Ukraine: according to the monitoring group Belaruski Gayun, at least a thousand soldiers have been deployed to the Gomel region bordering Ukraine. Wagnerites have been spotted there. The head of the Centre for Military Legal Studies , Oleksandr Musienko, in an exclusive commentary for Komersant ukrainskyi
, spoke about weapons that can reach even Kyiv.
The Foreign Ministry urged Lukashenko not to make “tragic mistakes” and to step aside. At the same time, Ukraine warned Belarusians of their readiness to defend themselves in case of border violations. Musienko says that the deployment of troops by the Republic of Belarus to the Gomel region is worrying. Along with manpower, Iskandars and Polonaises have already been spotted.
“They are pulling up forces through Bobruisk. There are different groups there, there are OTRKs (operational tactical missile systems) and MLRSs. In particular, Belarusian Polonez, which theoretically can reach even Kyiv from Gomel region,”
– Musienko says.
The military expert confirms the presence of Belarusian special operations forces and paratroopers on the border with Ukraine.
“It is difficult to say for sure about the total number of troops. The situation is dynamic and is constantly monitored, including by our command,”
– Musiyenko said
According to Ukraine’s intelligence agencies, the presence of mercenaries from the former Wagner PMC was recorded among a significant number of personnel. All these actions are carried out by self-proclaimed Lukashenko under the pretext of exercises.
It is currently difficult to say for sure whether this is just a psychological propaganda campaign or a real preparation for something bigger, says Musienko.
Does Belarus aim to draw Ukraine’s troops away from other areas?
There are forces that will respond quickly to an offensive from Belarus, says military expert Musienko. “These are the Siverskyi direction, which is the responsibility of the operational group, and the grouping of forces and means of the city of Kyiv. However, this is based on the current situation.
“As for Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, there are defensive fortifications, mined areas, and troops. However, if Belarus redeploys even more troops, it is possible that some forces may need to be involved,”
– says the expert.
Earlier, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the threat of an offensive by Russian occupation forces against Ukraine from the north was absolutely real. The tendency is to escalate, so the problem cannot be ignored. However, he did not specify where exactly the enemy troops might come from.
The author: Anastasia Fedor