In a recent report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysed the reaction of the Russian authorities to the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Analysts of the institute concluded that the creation of new volunteer territorial defence units is an indicator of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to take more serious measures, such as mobilisation or large-scale redeployment of troops, reports Komersant ukrainskyi
on 29 August, the acting governor of Kursk Region, Alexei Smirnov, officially announced the creation of the Bars-Kursk volunteer unit. According to him, the main function of this unit will be to “ensure security” in the Kursk region during the Ukrainian offensive, as well as to facilitate the re-population of border settlements in the future.
Smirnov noted that the unit will cooperate with the Russian military and the counter-terrorism operational headquarters, which are managing Russia’s current operations in the Kursk region. In addition, the unit will provide humanitarian support to residents of border settlements.
Volunteers who join Bars-Kursk will sign six-month contracts, undergo training and receive “all necessary” weapons to perform their duties. The Kursk region authorities published an advertisement for recruitment on 24 August.
According to information provided by Colonel Vitaliy Sarantsev, a representative of the Ukrainian Kharkiv group of troops, the Russian authorities are also forming similar units called ‘Bars-Bryansk’ and ‘Bars-Belgorod’. He estimates that the total number of the three units will be 4,921 volunteers. These units are supposed to support Russia’s Northern Military Group.
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ISW analysts believe that the creation of these new volunteer Bars (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) units is in line with the Kremlin’s obvious strategy. This strategy is to avoid the redeployment of experienced or combat-ready units involved in the Pokrovsk or Toretsk areas to the Kursk region. This tactic is explained by fears of slowing the pace of Russian offensive operations in these priority areas.
ISW has previously noted that the Kremlin appears to be relying heavily on conscripts and irregulars redeployed from lower priority areas in Ukraine to defend against a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Putin hinted at a possible desire to continue to rely on Russian volunteers to counter the Ukrainian offensive during his 12 August meeting with Russian military, security and civilian officials, mentioning an increased willingness to sign military service contracts among potential volunteers.
The Institute emphasises that Putin has consistently relied on volunteer and irregular formations to mitigate Russia’s manpower shortages during the war. He has avoided announcing a general mobilisation or another round of partial mobilisation, which would be extremely unpopular with Russian society.
ISW analysts believe that Putin will almost certainly remain extremely reluctant to declare a general mobilisation. He is likely to continue to rely on irregular formations to counter the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region until the Russian offensive culminates in eastern Ukraine. Only then might Putin consider redeploying more capable Russian forces from these areas to push Ukrainian units back abroad.