“Business Barometer” remains in the zone of negative expectations – research
5 May 10:56
“Weak signals of stabilization amid general pessimism”. This is how the results of the Business Barometer April 2025 survey presented by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry can be summarized, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
“The Business Barometer reflects the expectations of companies and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry about how the business environment may change next month compared to the previous one.
Where exactly does this “barometer” point?
In April 2025, the overall index of the Business Barometer showed a slight decrease and stopped at minus 11.6, thus remaining in the zone of negative expectations.
Negative sentiment dominates in all sectors without exception. However, the construction sector recorded a decrease in pessimistic forecasts – minus 3.8, while growth was recorded at 7.4. A slight increase in negative expectations is observed in the manufacturing, services, and trade sectors.
Regardless of the size of the business, negative expectations dominate in all categories, with a tendency to increase among micro-enterprises – minus 10.8, small enterprises – minus 12.4, and medium-sized enterprises – minus 13.2. Only large companies demonstrate a decrease in negative expectations – minus 7.0, while growth is 6.7.
The results of answers to the question about attitudes toward the resumption and strengthening of market surveillance of products show that a relative majority of business representatives (44%) support this step from the standpoint of consumer protection and fair competition. 30% consider it inappropriate in the current environment or see risks of increased pressure on business. Only 16% of respondents do not expect any significant impact on business.
The full report for April 2025 is available here.
More optimism in the NBU survey results
In the first quarter of 2025, businesses continued to improve their assessments of business activity over the next 12 months, as well as their forecasts for attracting investment, amid a moderate increase in inflation and stabilization of exchange rate expectations. This is according to a survey of company executives in the first quarter of 2025 conducted by the NBU.
The index of business expectations of enterprises amounted to 108.2% compared to 101.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
It is reported that the survey participants improved their estimates of all components of the index, most notably in terms of total sales and the number of employees. The revival of business activity was expected by enterprises in 14 regions, of all sizes, types and areas of activity.
The hostilities and their consequences remain the most significant factor affecting the ability of enterprises to increase production. At the same time, the impact of the shortage of skilled workers has increased by 2.5 times over the past two years.
Business expectations about the macroeconomic situation
Businesses have significantly improved their estimates of the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses is 15.6% (minus 1.4% in the fourth quarter).
Respondents from 13 oblasts, representatives of all types and directions of economic activity, as well as size by number of employees, expected production to increase.
The highest expectations were demonstrated by large enterprises, respondents of processing activities, and those engaged in export operations only.
According to the NBU, inflation expectations increased slightly: in the first quarter, annual inflation expected in the next 12 months was 11.5%, compared to 10.3% in the previous quarter. The share of respondents who expected inflation to be higher than 10.0% was 60.3%.
