Baku Gets Closer to Kyiv: Azerbaijan’s Geopolitical U-turn
28 May 09:01
ANALYSIS
After a long period of cautious neutrality, Azerbaijan is showing increasingly clear signs of cooling relations with Russia. From the withdrawal of “peacekeepers” from Karabakh to diplomatic demarches after the passenger plane tragedy, Baku is choosing a new trajectory.
on May 28, Azerbaijan celebrates its Independence Day, a symbol of the restoration of statehood and national sovereignty. This holiday is of particular importance in the context of global challenges, including Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
Azerbaijan, as an important regional player in the Caucasus, demonstrates a complex and multifaceted position in this conflict, balancing its own national interests, historical ties with Russia and support for Ukraine.
Alliance with Russia?
Two days before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on February 22, 2022, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia signed a Declaration of Allied Cooperation in Moscow. This document, signed by Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin, provided for deepening cooperation in the political, economic, and security spheres.
The Declaration on Allied Interaction caused concern in Ukrainian society, as it was perceived as a signal of Baku’s possible rapprochement with Moscow amid the aggression against Ukraine.
However, Azerbaijan seems to have sought to protect its own interests, particularly in the energy sector and in relations with Russia as a neighbor and partner in regional issues, such as the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Azerbaijan at the beginning of the war
In April 2022, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that his country supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
“Yes, we do not deny that we have good relations with Russia,”
– he said and added that
“the principles of international law should in no way be distorted for political advantage.”
For his part, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said
“Azerbaijan is one of the few countries whose neutral position Kyiv is ready to understand. We understand the balance of neutrality, because they may start a war. But we are waiting for more and cannot understand it for a long time, because it will be difficult for us.”
– he explained Kyiv’s position on expectations of greater resolve from Baku.
However, the authorities of the Caucasian country continued to avoid open confrontation with Russia.
Baku has not joined the countries that provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, and the Azerbaijani delegation to the UN has always been absent during key votes in support of Ukraine.
However, against the backdrop of such military and political caution, Azerbaijan provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
In March 2022, the state oil company SOCAR provided free fuel to Ukrainian medical services operating in the hostilities. In addition, Azerbaijan began to regularly send humanitarian supplies to the affected regions of Ukraine, and generators during the blackout.
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Azerbaijan withdraws Russian troops
Due to the absence of a more pro-Ukrainian position, there is a perception that Azerbaijan is pursuing a pro-Russian course and has become a tacit ally of Russia.
However, in 2024, official Baku took a step that few people believed would be realized – it withdrew Russian “peacekeeping troops” from its territory. All personnel, weapons and equipment of the Russian army left the country.
The withdrawal of these troops signaled Baku’s desire to strengthen its sovereignty and reduce its dependence on Moscow. The Russian so-called “peacekeepers” were deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh after the signing of a trilateral agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in 2020, which was pushed through by the Kremlin. Azerbaijan pledged that these “peacekeepers” would stay in Nagorno-Karabakh until 2025, with the possibility of extending their stay every five years. However, after the complete liberation of Karabakh in September 2023, Aliyev managed to convince Moscow that there was no longer a need for “peacekeepers.”
A turn from Russia
Almost six months after the withdrawal of Russian troops, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia deteriorated significantly. This happened due to the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane by Russian air defense on December 25, 2024.
It was flying from Baku to Grozny. At that time, the territory of Chechnya was under attack by Ukrainian drones. Russia did not declare the airspace over the region closed to civil aviation, which contributed to the tragedy.
In the skies over Grozny, a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system fired a missile, allegedly to repel an attack by Ukrainian drones, but it damaged a passenger plane.
The Azerbaijani pilots flying the damaged plane were denied landing at local airports by Russian controllers. It is likely that Russia wanted to hush up the conflict: if the plane had crashed in the North Caucasus, Moscow would have found convenient explanations to avoid responsibility.
Then the crew of the Embraer E19 requested permission to land in Kazakhstan. After flying the plane across the Caspian Sea to the Kazakh city of Aktau, it made an emergency landing and crashed 3 km from the airport.
There were 67 people on board: 38 died and 29 survived. All the pilots and staff of the plane were posthumously awarded the title of hero. The whole country paid their last respects to those shot down by the Russian missile..
President Aliyev was outraged by the behavior of the Kremlin, which initially denied any involvement. Although Putin apologized for the “tragic incident,” Russia has not yet officially acknowledged its responsibility. The tragedy has underscored Baku’s growing distrust of Moscow.
A few weeks after the incident, Azerbaijan decided to close the representative office of the Russian House in Baku, a cultural center funded by Russia and serving as an instrument of its soft power. In addition, Baku accused Russia of organizing a cyberattack on Azerbaijani government agencies.
This was followed by a series of events that further exacerbated tensions between the two countries. Azerbaijan refused to extradite to Russia judge Elena Khakhleeva, whom Moscow accused of corruption crimes, and blocked the Russian propaganda website Tsargrad (and before that, closed the Sputnik editorial office in Baku).
Azerbaijan’s gratitude
The meeting between the President of Azerbaijan and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andriy Sibiga, was a significant moment. It took place on May 25 in Baku, where the Foreign Minister arrived.
The Ukrainian minister and the Azerbaijani president had an “open and detailed conversation” about bilateral relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan, as well as current international issues.
Sibiga thanked the Azerbaijani leader for his consistent support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, as well as for the humanitarian and energy assistance Azerbaijan provided to Ukraine during the winter.
On the day of its independence, Azerbaijan (whose territory is roughly equal to three regions of Ukraine) is in a difficult geopolitical situation. To the north, it borders Russia, which is waging an aggressive war against Ukraine and poses a threat to regional stability.
To the south, the neighbor is Iran, which cannot accept the existence of an independent Azerbaijan and is trying to increase its influence and bring the country back into its orbit.
Finally, to the west is Armenia, with which Azerbaijan has fought twice over the past 30 years over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Baku is forced to balance its foreign policy and avoid open confrontations with its neighbors, including Russia. However, Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly tilting Azerbaijan towards a more pro-Ukrainian stance, making it sensitive to Ukrainians’ aspirations to defend their state and independence.
Asif Aliyev, specially for "Komersant Ukrainian"
