A number of Ukrainian media outlets and Telegram channels have spread information about a possible significant increase in autogas prices, which could exceed UAH 40 per litre by the end of the year. At the same time, although they have been rising over the past two months, they have so far reached only UAH 31 per litre. Are there really any grounds to expect such a serious rise in prices? Komersant ukrainskyi
asked an expert on the petroleum products market and director of A-95 Consulting Group Sergiy Kuyun.
“I don’t know why this is being done”
The consultant sharply refutes such forecasts, calling them “stuffing” and groundless panic. He admitted that he was surprised by the extent of such rumours.
“To be honest, I am surprised myself. It’s an acceleration and some kind of a throw-in. To be honest, I don’t know why this is being done,”
– said the expert.
In his opinion, it would have been understandable if such statements had been made during the discussion of excise taxes in July and August, when the issue of raising fuel taxes caused a lot of debate and resistance.
“Before this decision, there was opposition that scared people with price increases to prevent it from being adopted. But the decision has already been made, it has worked. I don’t know why they are launching these horror stories now,”
– says Kuyun.
PR and hype instead of the real situation
The market expert categorically rejects the possibility of raising the price of autogas to UAH 40 per litre. According to him, this requires a unique situation on the global fuel market.
“In order for such a price increase to occur, the price of gas must be higher than the price of petrol in the world. And I don’t remember when this happened,” he adds,
– he adds.
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Forecasts: growth to UAH 33, but no more
Sergiy Kuyun also announced his forecasts for autogas prices in the coming months. According to him, prices are indeed rising due to excise changes, but expectations for autogas are much less dramatic than rumours suggest.
“According to our forecasts, prices are rising due to the excise tax, which was expected. They are rising for liquefied gas, while petrol and diesel are getting cheaper due to the fall in oil prices, which was a pleasant surprise,”
– the expert explained.
He predicts that in September the price of autogas will stabilise at around UAH 33 per litre.
“We expect this process to end at UAH 33 per litre on average. After that, there may be market fluctuations of plus or minus 1 hryvnia, even 2 hryvnia. But to reach UAH 40… It’s hard for me to imagine,”
– assures Sergiy Kuyun.
What influences prices?
The expert emphasises that the main factor behind the rise in the price of autogas was the increase in excise taxes, which added about UAH 5 to the price of each litre. Back in early July, autogas cost 26.60 per litre. However, in order for the price to reach UAH 40, a global collapse would be necessary, which is not expected at the moment.
“The tax increase of €100 per thousand litres added UAH 5 to our price. That is, we need another €100 increase… For this to happen, there must be some kind of collapse in the world. This [talk of autogas at UAH 40] is not a market story, it’s a PR game,”
– Kuyun concluded.
Thus, despite the wave of panic, the expert reassures that we should not expect a sharp jump in autogas prices to the level of UAH 40 per litre.