Sumy attack and “sanitary zone” near the border: what will happen at the front in the near future
9 April 19:52
OPINION
Russia does not have enough resources for a large-scale offensive in Sumy region. In light of the recent statements by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi , regarding threats in the northern direction, analysts and military experts have agreed that despite the intensification of fighting in the border areas of Sumy region, the Russian army is unlikely to be able to launch a full-scale offensive in this area. Military expert Vladislav Seleznyov told about this in an exclusive commentary to [comersant ], emphasizing several key aspects of the current security situation.
Sumy region is at risk, but a large-scale invasion is out of the question
“In fact, General Syrsky confirmed President Zelensky’s statement about Putin’s intentions to attack our border. But, as Kovalenko, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, rightly noted, Sumy region is a separate story,” Selezniov emphasized.
According to him, the fighting on the territory of the border settlements of Sumy region, in particular in the areas of Basivka and Loknya, has been going on for a long time. Russian forces are trying to advance, but suffer significant losses, which does not allow us to talk about the creation of a large-scale offensive group.
Is a “sanitary zone” possible?
The expert pointed out that the most likely scenario is that Russia will try to implement a plan to create a so-called “sanitary zone” – a buffer along the border, which the Russian authorities publicly justify as “protection” against Ukrainian drone attacks.
“Whether the enemy will succeed in creating a sanitary zone depends solely on whether we have enough resources to repel the attacks. But it is obvious to me that the enemy will not be able to move deeper,” emphasized Selezniov.
Fortifications in Sumy region are a key deterrent
Selezniov emphasized the role of engineering fortification of the defense line.
“A powerful network of engineering fortifications has been created in Sumy region. General Artyukh, the head of the local military-civilian administration, has made a lot of efforts to strengthen this area.”
According to the expert, the depth of the first line of fortifications reaches six kilometers from the state border, and it is this infrastructure that creates a significant barrier to any serious advance of the enemy.
Russia’s limited resources are a key obstacle
Despite various estimates of the number of troops deployed by Russia on the northern front (from 50 to 60 thousand), they are not enough to exert pressure in several critical areas at once.
“The Russian army has higher priority areas: Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovske-Myrnohrad direction, the south of Zaporizhzhia region. And all these areas lack resources for a large-scale offensive,” explained Selezniov.
What to expect next?
According to the expert, the situation in the Sumy sector will remain under control at least until mid-summer. Under the current circumstances, Russia may “dream” of a breakthrough, but it has no real capabilities to do so.
“I think the situation may change no earlier than in the middle of summer. For now, the enemy can dream, but it is unlikely to change anything fundamentally,” Vladyslav Selezniov summarized.
Thus, despite the information pressure and tactical actions of the Russian army, the real threat of a large-scale breakthrough in the northern direction remains low. Ukrainian defense, particularly in Sumy region, has been reinforced and prepared for possible scenarios.
What is the current situation at the front in Ukraine?
As of April 2025, the situation on the frontline in Ukraine remains extremely tense and is characterized by increased activity on the part of Russian troops, especially in the border areas. The Ukrainian command reports on the enemy’s attempts to intensify offensive actions in several key areas, but emphasizes that a full-scale breakthrough has not taken place.
New waves of offensive and Ukraine’s response
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, officially confirmed the start of a new offensive phase by the Russian Federation. The main attacks were recorded in the areas of Kharkiv and Sumy regions. However, thanks to the efforts of the Defense Forces and the presence of a developed system of fortifications, especially in the Sumy direction, Ukrainian troops are able to restrain the enemy’s advance.
According to military expert Vladyslav Selezniov, Russia is most likely not seeking to capture large areas, but to create a so-called “sanitary zone” – a buffer strip along the border. However, the enemy’s resources for large-scale operations are limited. Analysts point out that today the Russian Federation has about 50-60 thousand military personnel concentrated in the region, but these forces are also involved in other areas – in Donetsk region and in the south of Zaporizhzhia region.
Countermeasures and strengthening defense
The Ukrainian side is actively reinforcing the border areas. General Artyukh, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, has made significant efforts to create a multi-level defense system. According to experts, the first line of fortifications is located up to 6 kilometers from the state border and includes trenches, minefields, and engineering barriers.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy also confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine maintain control over a section of Russian territory near the village of Demydivka, Belgorod region. According to the head of state, this step is aimed at reducing pressure on the Ukrainian border regions.
Situation in other parts of the frontline
Heavy fighting continues in Donetsk region for Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Toretsk. These areas remain a priority for the Russian army, but it has not managed to make any significant progress. Analysts point to high casualties among Russian troops, which makes it difficult to conduct intensive offensives in all directions simultaneously.
Missile attacks and civilian casualties
on April 4, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Kryvyi Rih. The attack killed 20 people, including 9 children. This is one of the most tragic attacks in recent months. According to local authorities, the strike hit residential areas, which once again confirms the deliberate use of force against civilians.
Prospects and international response
Discussions about the prospects of the war continue inside Ukraine. Military experts tend to believe that there will be no major changes on the frontline by mid-summer. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to force Russia to negotiate are intensifying in the international arena.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is running for election again, said that a truce could be reached if “both sides are ready to compromise.” However, Kyiv is not considering a ceasefire without a guaranteed restoration of territorial integrity.
