Apple under pressure: how Trump’s new tariffs are changing the global iPhone market
3 April 22:05
3 On April 3, 2025, the administration of US President Donald Trump introduced new import tariffs, including a 54% duty on goods from China, which will significantly affect Apple. Since most of the brand’s products, including the iPhone, are manufactured in China, these duties could lead to a significant increase in smartphone prices, Komersant ukrainskyi reports citing Reuters.
The new duties automatically make smartphones imported from China much more expensive for the American market and beyond.
Why is this important for the global market?
the iPhone is not just a popular gadget. It is the flagship product of the global technology industry. Its rise in price could trigger a chain reaction:
- increase in prices for accessories and related services;
- reduction of sales volumes;
- redistribution of the market in favor of competitors, in particular Samsung and Chinese manufacturers operating in the mid-range segment.
What will change for consumers?
According to preliminary estimates, the retail price of the basic iPhone 16 may increase from $799 to $1,142. The iPhone 16 Pro Max model may cost up to $2,300 instead of $1,599. For comparison, the median household income in the US in 2024 was $74,580, which means that one flagship Apple smartphone will cost more than 3% of the family’s annual income. This is a record figure.
Production chains and challenges
This is not the first time that Apple has been under pressure from Trump’s customs policy. Back in 2019-2020, the company received benefits and deferrals for some imports. But now the situation is more severe: the new duties cover not only China but also alternative production countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. All of them, according to the new list, are subject to duties ranging from 26 to 46%.
That is, moving production outside of China, which Apple has been actively pursuing over the past three years, does not seem to be saving the day. The effect is limited and requires a new strategic response.
Possible scenarios for Apple
1. Price maneuver. The company can partially absorb costs while remaining competitive in the US market. But this will reduce profitability, which has already scared investors – the company’s shares fell by more than 8% on the day the duties were announced.
2. Optimization of logistics. Apple is considering more active use of Mexico as a base for final assembly to reduce the tax burden on imports. The company is also exploring the possibility of using Free Trade Zones in the United States.
3. Rethinking the product portfolio. the iPhone may become even more of a luxury item. The company expects to reduce the production of SE models and focus on the premium segment, where margins can partially offset duties.
4. Changes in market strategy. There is a growing likelihood that Apple will redirect its focus to the EU, Japan, Canada, and South Korea, regions where customs policy remains more predictable.
Economic and political context
The new duties are part of Donald Trump’s promise to “bring manufacturing home”. This is an “America First” ideology focused on stimulating domestic producers and limiting access to cheap imports.
However, critics point out that such actions create tension not only in international trade but also domestically: rising prices will hit end users, reduce the availability of technology, and increase inflationary risks.
Apple now faces a difficult choice. Each scenario means either financial losses or loss of competitive position. The company will have to choose between maintaining prices and maintaining profitability. At the same time, the new duties may accelerate the radical transformation of global supply chains, which Apple has been preparing for in recent years.
The situation clearly demonstrates how the political decisions of one country can transform global business models and that large tech players are not immune to economic nationalism, even with trillion-dollar capitalization.
Read also: Trump imposed a 25% duty on car imports: what it means for the market
IPhone prices in Ukraine in April 2025: what is known
In April 2025, the cost of Apple smartphones in Ukraine remains stable, although some changes in the international market may affect prices in the near future. Currently, the most popular iPhone models are available in the country’s retail networks in the following price ranges:
- iPhone 16e (128 GB) – from UAH 29,999.
- iPhone 15 (128 GB) – from UAH 34,000.
- iPhone 15 Pro Max (256 GB) – in the range of UAH 59,000-63,000.
- iPhone 14 (128 GB) – an average of UAH 27,000-30,000.
Prices may vary slightly depending on the supplier, retailer, official or unofficial imports, and the US dollar exchange rate.
What factors affect the price of an iPhone in Ukraine?
1. Exchange rate. Due to the high dependence on imports, the price of an iPhone is closely linked to the hryvnia/US dollar exchange rate. Even minor fluctuations in the exchange rate can lead to changes in the retail price of devices.
2. US customs policy. In April 2025, the media is actively discussing a new customs initiative of the Donald Trump administration, which may affect the cost of Apple technology around the world. It is about increasing duties on Chinese products, including electronics, which increases the cost of devices.
3. Demand before Easter. Traditionally, demand for electronics in Ukraine increases before the holidays, which can lead to a temporary rise in prices, especially for new models.
4. Parallel imports. Some devices enter the Ukrainian market through a “gray” supply chain – from Europe, the UAE, and Poland. Because of this, warranty service sometimes does not meet official standards, and prices can be either lower or higher than recommended.
What will happen to iPhone prices in the future?
Analysts predict that iPhone prices could rise by $50-70 in the second half of 2025 if the US customs policy is implemented. For Ukrainian consumers, this will mean a price increase of UAH 2,000-3,000 depending on the model. At the same time, official distributors are already preparing to revise contracts with suppliers.
In addition, the iPhone lineup is expected to be updated in the fall, which traditionally leads to lower prices for previous models, but at the same time increases interest in new products and stimulates price fluctuations across the entire range.
