may 9 as a symbolic deadline: Kremlin’s ambitions for negotiations and reality
2 January 19:58
ANALYSIS FROM 
Russia may seek to conclude negotiations on Ukraine by May 9, Sky News Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett suggests. In his opinion, the fighting may stop and the war will be frozen. However, do sacred dates for Putin still exist today and what will determine the start of negotiations?
The Kremlin will try to present any outcome of the talks as a victory. A Sky New correspondent is sure of this.
“The Russian authorities are likely to want to combine the end of the talks with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, creating an opportunity for a double celebration,” Ivor Bennett writes.
However, he emphasizes that Putin will face problems due to the economic downturn, inflation, and the fall of the ruble.
Peace talks are possible no earlier than spring 2025
Military expert Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary for
“The process is long and fragile. My expectation is that negotiations can start no earlier than March next year. This is due to the change of power in the United States. Donald Trump will need to form his team, make appointments, get access to intelligence and build a strategy. This process will take several months,” explained Ivan Stupak.
The expert noted that Russia is still trying to achieve military achievements, but at the same time it has to constantly assess the state of its economy.
“The Russians are advancing on the frontline, but every day they look back and analyze how strong the economic situation is. Their fears are related to the fact that they may lose not on the battlefield, but on the economic front,” Stupak noted.
Despite the aggressor’s attempts to gain a foothold on the battlefield, economic pressure on Russia is only growing. The military expert reminded that one of the most powerful blows to the Russian economy was the termination of gas supplies to Europe.
“Previously, the supply amounted to 130 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and now it is 0. This is a huge loss for the Russian budget,” emphasized Ivan Stupak.
Factors influencing the start of negotiations
According to Stupak, the start of the peace process depends on the balance between military success and economic losses of Russia.
“When there is even less progress on the frontline and the economic situation begins to deteriorate rapidly, then Moscow will be ready to sit down at the negotiating table,” Stupak said.
He emphasized that the current situation is too unfavorable for the Kremlin to start any negotiations, as their economic problems are getting worse and their international isolation is only deepening. At the same time, Ukraine continues to receive support from its partners, which strengthens its position in the war.
According to Ivan Stupak, time is working against Russia, and each new day of the war weakens both its economy and military capabilities.
“The war will continue until the balance of power forces the Kremlin to seek a way out through diplomacy,” summarized Ivan Stupak.
The war may continue in 2025
According to the Center for Countering Disinformation, Russia is ready to fight throughout 2025 and even longer. The Institute for the Study of War also reports that Putin has rejected the peace plan being developed by the team of US President-elect Donald Trump.
At the same time, the United States does not yet have an official plan to end the war. On the Polymarket forecasting platform,bets on the end of the hot phase of the war by April 20, 2025 have fallen to 40%. The situation remains uncertain, and the duration of the war will depend on many factors, including international negotiations and economic conditions in Russia.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
